REPORT For Date 05/01/2018
CZCE Cotton No.1 May '18 Expect Consolidation
Yuan per ton
Sideways volatility is being witnessed and is likely to be seen around the DRV-15009.
Support will be at 14940-14800.
Resistance will be at 15210.
Addition of long position has been witnessed as open interest increased with the rise and positive candle.
Bandwidth has increased with positive candle which suggest that near term rise to higher range can be witnessed with volatility.
Further weakness will be restored below 14800.
The candle is positive last week as DRV is flat and horizontal.
Indicators like RSI, MACD and Stochastic have increased.
Breakout and weekly close above 15210 is essential to resume a rise to test the lower top of 15500.
A consolidation above 14800 could be witnessed in an attempt to move higher above 1520.
Weaker opening and correction first t0 15060-14940 can be used for accumulation with a stop loss of 14800.
Expect higher range of 15210-15480.
A weekly close below 14800 can lead to a slide to test 14650 or below levels.
TREND INFORMATION WITH INTRA-DAY LEVELS
|
STRATEGY
|
CLOSE
|
DRV
|
TREND*
|
Trend
Price
|
Trend
Date
|
L1
|
L2
|
CP
|
L3
|
L4
|
|
-
|
15090.00
|
15009.81
|
UP
|
15090.0
|
5.01
|
14670
|
14940
|
15060
|
15210
|
15480
|
*Trend will remain Down as long as last close is below the pink color DRV. Trend will be Up as long as Price is above DRV. Positional Traders: If trend is up then traders long can hold long position with closing stop loss of DRV: Close >DRV. If trend is down then traders can hold short position with a closing stop loss of DRV: Close <DRV.
PRICE, VOLUME AND OPEN INTEREST STRATEGY
|
LAST CLOSE
|
PRICE G/L%
|
VOLUME
|
% V INC/DEC
|
OPEN INTEREST
|
% OI INC/DEC
|
CANDLE
|
POSITION
|
|
15090.0
|
0.6
|
1187052
|
50.8
|
186280
|
18.1
|
Positive
|
Addition Long
|
TECHNICAL INDICATORS TABLE
|
RSI
|
1-ROC-RSI
|
Stochastic
|
1-ROC-
Stochastic
|
MACD
|
1-ROC
MACD
|
RS
|
1-ROC
RS
|
|
43.01
|
6.25
|
29.52
|
21.82
|
-97.96
|
4.39
|
42.08
|
-5.68
|
Note: UP Green= Shows Up Trend as Close > DRV (Pink Line), DN Red= Shows Down Trend as Close < DRV(Pink Line), Red Color Bar= Down Trend + Bandwidth Is Rising, Green Color Bars= Up Trend + Bandwidth Is Rising, Blue Color Bars= Sideways(Trend could be up or down + Bandwidth is falling), Pink Color line= DRV, V marked= Increase in Volume in relation to last few days. Trend will remain Down as long as last close is below the pink color DRV. Trend will be Up as long as Price is above DRV. Bandwidth Indicator= Helps to determine directional speed in the direction of the trend. Falling Bandwidth would indicates loss of momentum being witnessed or likely to be witnessed. Sideways movement may emerge or upside or downside could be locked until Bandwidth does not turn up. Rising Bandwidth can bring about directional momentum.
Disclaimer: There is risk of loss in trading in derivatives and the report is not to be construed as investment advice. The information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes. The author, directors and other employees of CC Commodity Info Services cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the opinions expressed above.
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