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Tur Seasonality Preview & Long-Term Trend

8 Jul 2019 2:40 pm
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Last five years seasonal trend is showing that Tur prices trade negative to side ways during April to July this may be due to the fact that cheaper substitute like mango and cheap vegetables are available during this period.But prices traded up during period August to September period this might be due to slow down in arrival of new crop and start of festival season.

As it can be seen from seasonal chart this year movments are much larger than the average for 5 and ten years because of limited stock and less no of participants active in market along with liquidity cruch in markets has made markets more illiquid and volatile.

We may see market to follow season trend and move up during Aug-Sep period due to limited supply and delay in new crop.Though there will be supply from NAFED and imported pulses.But as per media reports NAFED is not going to sell below MSP and due to availability of limited supply in overseas market prices are like to move up there due buying from India .This will increase the landed price of imported Tur in Indian market hence support domestic prices.

Further stock in domestic market is depleting day by day and procedure of allocation of import quota has not yet started. So it will take another two months for Imported Tur to enter domestic market this will help market to recover from current levels.

Please note: The column-chart above shows monthly price seasonality (Spot rates) for the underlying commodity (Lemon Tur), which is derived by taking an average of the monthly percent change in price over a look-back period. Here, we are analyzing the progress of 2019 (Thick Gray Col) with historical data since 2007 (Blue Col), Last 5 Years (2014-2018, Orange Col), and Last 10 Years (2009-2018, Green Col).The height of the columns indicate percent change (scale on the left and right of the chart), for the month displayed on the bottom X-axis.

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