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Oilseed Commentary: CBOT Soybean closed lower on bearish exports report

26 Feb 2021 8:59 am
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Mumbai (Commodities Control) – The most-active CBOT March soybean futures closed 17¾¢ lower at $14.06¾.

May soymeal futures finished $4.30 short term lower at $423.00.

May soy oil futures closed 0.36¢ lower at 49.67¢ per pound.

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures dropped 1.3% on Thursday following a bearish export report, snapping a streak of four straight higher closes.

Traders also noted profit-taking after the most-active CBOT soybean contract hit its highest since June 2014 during the overnight trading session.

The U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday morning that weekly export sales of soybeans totaled 238,700 tonnes, the smallest weekly total since the week ended Dec. 31.

Chinese soybean crushers are expected to curtail operations sharply in the coming months due to harvest delays in top exporter Brazil, pushing up prices and likely leading to a rundown in inventories.

The shortage will be widely felt and probably last till at least mid-April, and comes just days after Beijing issued a major policy document stressing the importance of food security in the world's most populous country.

Bean shipments from Brazil to southern China will be very limited in March. Supplies will be tight.

Drought delayed soybean planting in Brazil in late 2020 and constant rains have disrupted harvest this year.

That's similar to what happened early last year when Chinese crushers had to wind back operations, inventories fell to record lows and soymeal prices rallied.

About 5.5 million tonnes of soybeans are expected to arrive in China in March, said a senior trader at a company which runs crushing plants across the country.

That would be up from 4.28 million tonnes for March last year but still well below the average monthly soybean consumption of 8-9 million tonnes.

It will provide support to prices in medium term.

For NCDEX Soybeans we expect futures to trade towards 5000/5050 Rs/qtl in coming sessions.

(Commodities Control Bureau)

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