MUMBAI, 9 Jul (Commoditiescontrol): The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) indicated today that La Niña weather patterns, known for causing heavy rainfall and floods in Asia, particularly India, are likely to emerge only after August. Climate models predict that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific will continue cooling for at least the next two months.
The BoM's Climate Driver Update on Tuesday noted, “From September, 4 out of 7 climate models suggest SSTs will remain at neutral ENSO levels, while the remaining 3 models suggest the possibility of SSTs reaching La Niña levels (below −0.8 °C).” Currently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is neutral, and SSTs in the central Pacific have been cooling since December 2023, supported by cooler-than-average sub-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
The Australian weather agency stated that the rate and extent of cooling at both the surface and depth have slowed during June, and cloud and surface pressure patterns are presently ENSO-neutral.
These findings are echoed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), part of the European Union’s Space programme. On Monday, C3S reported below-average temperatures over the eastern equatorial Pacific, signaling a developing La Niña, but noted that air temperatures over the ocean remain unusually high in many regions.
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also reported below-average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific Ocean, with slightly above-average temperatures near the surface.
In response to early signs of a potential La Niña event later in the year, the BoM has issued a “La Niña Watch.” However, the agency cautioned that a La Niña Watch does not guarantee the development of the weather pattern, indicating only an equal chance of either ENSO remaining neutral or a La Niña developing.
BoM highlighted the challenges faced by weather agencies in predicting this pattern, noting that global SSTs have been the warmest on record for each month from April 2023 to June 2024. This unprecedented warmth complicates future predictions based on historical SST data associated with past ENSO or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events.
The BoM emphasized that phenomena like ENSO and IOD are broad climate indicators, with long-range forecasts providing better guidance on local rainfall and temperature patterns. The IOD is currently neutral, with models predicting it will remain so until at least early spring, beyond which predictability is low.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)
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