Mumbai, 09 Oct 2024 (Commoditiescontrol):Tur prices continued to fall in the domestic market due to weak demand from mills, which are only buying on a need basis. Mills are hesitant to increase inventory as prices keep declining and a bumper Kharif Tur crop is anticipated. Additionally, steady supplies from overseas have added pressure on prices. However, in Burma, Tur prices remained steady in both local markets and CNF India trade, with minimal trading activity due to export disparity and low inventories at the season’s end.
Market dynamics are also influenced by the Indian government's investigation into the widening price gap between wholesale and retail levels. Despite wholesale prices for Tur and Urad falling nearly 10% across major mandis in the last three months, retail prices have not seen similar adjustments. This is evident from the price ratio between raw Tur and processed Tur dal widening from 1.37 to 1.48, indicating mills may be withholding Tur dal supplies to maintain higher prices. This investigation is expected to increase selling pressure in Tur dal, potentially pushing prices even lower.
In India’s domestic market, Lemon Tur followed the downward trend of Desi Tur varieties. In Mumbai, Sudan and Lemon varieties fell by ₹250 and ₹100 per quintal, respectively. The Matwara Tur, Mozambique White, Gajri Tur, and Dodoma varieties remained stable. In Delhi and Chennai, Lemon Tur prices also dropped by ₹100 due to low stock levels and limited trading activity.
Meanwhile, Tanzanian Tur, scheduled for October shipment, remained steady at $805 per metric ton CNF Navasheva (approximately ₹7,010 per quintal). Despite reports of diminishing supplies from Mozambique and Tanzania, the overall availability has remained stable so far, with price impacts yet to materialize as forward rates continue to decline in both domestic and international markets.
Tur International Prices In Key Indian Markets:
Tur prices in bilty trade witnessed a sharp decline, with major processing centers like Nagpur and Katni experiencing losses of up to Rs 300/quintal. Other key centers also faced declines in the range of Rs 100-200/quintal. This drop was driven by limited buying from mills, which faced competition from lower-priced African Tur and the anticipated bumper Kharif crop. Stockists continued selling despite the recent sharp decline, intending to liquidate their stock before the new Kharif crop hits the market.
In mandi trade, prices also fell sharply due to reduced buying interest from mills.
Spot Raw Tur Bilty And Mandi Prices In Key Indian Markets:
Tur dal prices continued to decline across major domestic processing and consumption centers. Concerns over a potential government investigation into the widening price gap between wholesale and retail levels may increase selling pressure on Tur dal, leading to further price declines.
Spot Raw Tur Dal Prices In Key Indian Markets:
Contrary to the usual price rise during Navratri, Tur prices have remained subdued, signaling a notable slowdown in demand. Mills are taking a cautious approach, likely in anticipation of a bumper Kharif crop and sufficient Tur dal stocks, leading to reduced crushing activity. In the last two months, imports have averaged 100,000 tons per month, mostly from Africa. Despite limited domestic supply and steady imports, the market is struggling for support, indicating either a sharp drop in demand or an overestimation of domestic Tur stocks.
Looking ahead, market volatility is expected to persist as forward trades for October Lemon Tur are settled. Trading activity may slow down after Dussehra due to the festive season. Additionally, the ongoing government investigation into the price disparity between Tur and Tur dal could further pressure Tur dal prices, potentially preventing any significant recovery in Tur prices.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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