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Mumbai, 13 Nov (Commoditiescontrol):Copper prices exhibited a mixed performance across global exchanges, influenced by fluctuating inventories, strong open interest, and macroeconomic uncertainties. Here’s a breakdown of the market trends observed on key exchanges:
MCX Performance: In India, the MCX November and December copper contracts ended lower, with November closing at ₹799.95, down by ₹5.65, and December at ₹806.00, down ₹6.20. Despite price drops, open interest rose, indicating sustained market participation. The trading volume held steady, with 9,216 lots for November and 1,729 for December, reflecting an engaged market stance despite price headwinds.
LME Overview: London Metal Exchange (LME) copper faced a bearish tone, with the 3-month contract closing at $9,047 per ton, down by $95. The cash price fell further to $8,908.61, a sharp $93.57 decrease, as a broad inventory build-up dampened sentiment. These declines emphasize investor caution amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
SHFE Activity: The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) mirrored this decline, with the December copper contract dropping ¥1,100 to close at ¥74,690. High trading volumes of 101,916 contracts and increased open interest in December indicate a robust market activity as participants brace for further price adjustments. The January contract similarly fell, closing ¥1,080 lower at ¥74,720, aligning with broader bearish sentiment in the SHFE market.
COMEX Trends: In the U.S., COMEX copper saw declines in both the November and December contracts, closing at $4.0640 and $4.0830, respectively. Open interest notably dropped in December, suggesting a waning speculative interest as the near-term outlook weakens.
Inventory Levels: Copper inventories presented a mixed picture. On the MCX, stocks decreased by 290.07 tons to 5,762.55 metric tons, while SHFE inventories remained relatively stable, dipping by 3 tons to 39,360 metric tons. The LME recorded a rise of 1,875 tons, reaching 273,100 metric tons, while COMEX stocks also saw an uptick of 282 tons, totaling 88,892 metric tons, reflecting supply build-up, especially in Western markets.
Macroeconomic Influences: The latest U.S. October CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, marking a three-month high, which supported the U.S. dollar index and pressured copper prices. The Federal Reserve's caution on potential rate cuts has added to market uncertainty, which continues to impact copper’s near-term demand outlook.
China Copper Market Update: Despite global price pressures, China’s spot copper market remains resilient. Firm quotes reflect strong downstream demand, pushing spot premiums higher as domestic supply tightens. This support from China’s demand fundamentals counters some of the bearishness observed globally.
Market Sentiment and Outlook: The immediate outlook for copper remains cautious, with U.S. macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve signals influencing sentiment. For the MCX, copper is in a short-term downtrend, closing at ₹799.95, with support levels at ₹796.4 and ₹792.8, and resistance at ₹805.5 and ₹811.1. The pivot point is ₹801.9, while a reversal at ₹847.7 suggests the potential for upside if oversold conditions, indicated by an RSI of 34.3, trigger renewed buying interest. The near-term trend may hinge on upcoming economic data and inventory shifts, with close monitoring needed on global exchange movements and China’s spot market dynamics.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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