MUMBAI, 11 Dec (Commoditiescontrol): The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on Wednesday that there is more than a 50% chance of a La Niña weather pattern developing over the next three months. However, the agency noted that if La Niña does occur, it is expected to be weak and short-lived.
La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon caused by the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, particularly near the equator. This occurs when stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm surface waters westward, allowing cooler water to rise to the surface. The phenomenon often leads to changes in global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in some regions and drought in others.
A La Niña event could temporarily disrupt the trend of rising global temperatures. However, 2024 is still on track to become the warmest year on record, driven by human-induced climate change and greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the WMO, there is a 55% likelihood of a transition to La Niña between December 2024 and February 2025. This forecast has been slightly revised downward from an earlier prediction of a 60% chance in September.
Despite the potential onset of La Niña, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo cautioned that its cooling effect would not be enough to offset the warming influence of record levels of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere. “Even if a La Niña event does emerge, its short-term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases,” Saulo emphasized.
La Niña's counterpart, El Niño, involves warming of ocean surface temperatures in the same Pacific region and typically leads to opposite weather effects, such as droughts in some areas and heavy rainfall in others. Together, these phenomena form part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, a key driver of global climate variability.
The announcement highlights the continued challenge of addressing climate change as global temperatures climb, even with the influence of natural climate patterns like La Niña or El Niño.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)