Mumbai, 14 Jan (Commoditiescontrol): India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, is poised for a significant decline in sugar production for the 2024-25 season as disease outbreaks and last year’s dry weather weigh heavily on sugarcane supplies to mills.
Production for the season ending September 2025 is estimated at 27.6 million tons, including ethanol diversion, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders and millers. This marks a 4.4 million-ton drop from the previous year and falls short of the 29.3 million tons projected in November by the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
A key factor driving the decline is the outbreak of red rot disease, caused by the fungus Colletotrichum falcatum. The disease has severely impacted crops in Uttar Pradesh, India’s leading sugar-producing state, damaging yields and compromising cane quality. Coupled with the lingering effects of prolonged dry weather, the disease has led to a sharp reduction in cane output.
The downward revision in production has effectively ruled out the possibility of sugar exports this season, a leading trade house stated. While the sugar industry has requested approval for 2 million tons of exports, the government has indicated that exports will only be considered if any surplus remains after meeting ethanol production requirements.
The production shortfall is expected to tighten domestic supplies, potentially driving up prices and leaving India absent from the global export market, which could have implications for international sugar prices.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)