MUMBAI, 22 Jan (Commoditiescontrol): Citigroup has updated its 2025 oil price projections, reflecting anticipated shifts in global supply and demand. The bank now forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, decreasing to $68 in the second quarter, $63 in the third, and $60 in the fourth quarter, resulting in an annual average of $67 per barrel. For West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, Citi projects an average price of $63 per barrel for the year.
This revision aligns with Citi's broader outlook, which anticipates a supply surplus of approximately 800,000 barrels per day in 2025. Such an oversupply is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, with Brent potentially declining to $60 per barrel by mid-2025 and stabilizing at that level through the year's end.
Despite the baseline forecast, Citi acknowledges potential volatility due to geopolitical factors. In a bullish scenario, where Middle East tensions disrupt supply chains, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. However, absent such disruptions, the market is likely to experience price moderation as supply outpaces demand.
These projections come amid policy shifts, including U.S. President Donald Trump's initiatives to increase domestic oil production, which could further influence global oil prices. Analysts suggest that such policies may contribute to a decrease in oil prices, with Brent crude potentially averaging $60 per barrel in 2025.
In summary, while Citi's forecasts indicate a downward trend in oil prices throughout 2025 due to anticipated supply surpluses, the potential for geopolitical disruptions introduces an element of uncertainty that could lead to price volatility in the global oil market.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)
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