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Global Oilseed Production to Surge by 30 Million Tons in 2024/25: Oil World Report

17 Jun 2024 6:31 pm
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The latest report from Oil World projects a substantial increase in global oilseed production for the 2024/25 season, with an estimated rise of approximately 30 million tons (Mn T). This growth is primarily driven by the expansion of the harvested area, expected to reach a record 323.3 million hectares (Mn ha), significantly surpassing the five-year average of 307.0 Mn ha.

While ample soybean supplies are set against tightening rapeseed and sunflowerseed stocks, soybean crushings are anticipated to reach a new peak of 341 Mn T for the 2024/25 Oct/Sept period. Global soybean production is projected to increase by nearly 28 Mn T, marking the third consecutive season of surplus.

A potential shift from high oil-yielding oilseeds to lower oil-yielding soybeans could reduce global seed oil production growth to 1.5%, down from 3.9% in 2023/24. This shift reflects strategic adjustments in response to market demands and agricultural trends.

Conversely, global supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed are forecasted to decline by a combined 4 Mn T in 2024/25. This decrease is expected to lead to a reduction in crushings, following significant increases over the past two years totaling 18 Mn T.

The report provides detailed forecasts for the supply and demand of 10 major oilseeds. Opening stocks are expected to rise to 121.1 Mn T from 119.1 Mn T, with production anticipated to reach 665.5 Mn T, an increase of 30.4 Mn T from the previous year. Notably, soybean production is expected to rise by 28.5 Mn T, while other oilseeds like sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and cottonseed are projected to see moderate increases. Total supplies are forecasted to grow by 32.4 Mn T, reaching 786.6 Mn T. Disappearance is estimated to rise to 648.1 Mn T, with soybeans accounting for 348.5 Mn T of this total. Ending stocks are projected to be 138.5 Mn T, up by 17.4 Mn T, ensuring ample reserves. The stock/usage ratio is expected to see a minor increase, reaching 21.4%.

The anticipated increase in soybean production and crushings is likely to boost export supplies of soya meal and oil. However, the contrasting decline in sunflowerseed and rapeseed supplies could lead to tighter markets for these oilseeds, potentially impacting prices and availability.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 3018)

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