MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Lentil export from Canada for 2017-18 is likely to fall sharply by nearly 39% to 1.5 million tonnes (Mt) from 2.45 million tonnes a year ago. The main markets are Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan, said Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in a monthly (June) release.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase sharply due to poor demand from India. The average price, for all types and grades, is forecast to fall sharply due to burdensome carry-out stocks and the absence of India from the lentil import market. For the crop year, large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a large premium (C$360/t) over red lentil prices.
For 2018-19, area seeded to lentils in Canada is expected to decrease by 8% to 1.6 million hectare (Mha), due to the sharp decline in farmgate lentil prices in the last half of the 2017-18 crop year.
Saskatchewan is expected to account for 89% of the lentil area, with the remainder in Alberta.
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Production is forecast by AAFC to fall sharply to 2.5 Mt. However, supply is expected to rise, to a near record level of 3.35 Mt, as a result of higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be higher than in 2017-18 at 1.8 Mt.
Carry-out stocks for 2018-19 are forecast to increase to a record 0.95 Mt.
The average price is forecast to fall from 2017-18 with lower prices for the top grades with the assumption of an average grade distribution.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2018-19 is forecast by the USDA at 0.8 million acres, down 28% from 2017-18 due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota. Assuming normal yield and abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by AAFC to decrease sharply from 2017-18 to 425,000 tonne.
The main US export markets for lentils continue to be Canada, the EU and Mexico.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-22-40015533)
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