MUMBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2018-19 pea exports are forecast to rise marginally to 3.1 million tonnes (Mt), with China, Bangladesh and the US ranking as top three markets, according to AAFC’s February outlook.
Canadian dry pea exports to India are expected to fall sharply to 120 thousand tonnes (kt). Through August to December of this crop year, Canadian dry pea exports total 1.4 Mt, slightly higher than the same period in 2017-18.
Carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply due to firm export demand, despite lower supply. The average price is expected to rise from 2017-18, as higher green and feed pea prices offset similar yellow pea prices.
During the month of February, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan fell by $10/t, while the price of green peas rose by $35/t. Monthly dry pea exports have continued at a strong pace.
Yellow pea supplies continue to be ample. Indications are that there will be another large winter pulse crop in India.
Even if a higher-than-average pulse crop in India is realized, Canadian dry pea export demand is expected to remain firm through the remainder of the crop year. Support factors include the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and strong demand from China. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $130/t premium over yellow peas, compared to the $40/t premium in 2017-18.
US dry pea production is estimated by the USDA at over 0.7 Mt, up 12% from 2017-18. This is largely due to improved yields in North Dakota and Montana. As a result, Canadian exports to the US are forecast to be lower than the previous year.
For 2018-19 to-date (August to December), Canadian dry pea exports to the US totaled 87 Kt.
For 2019-20, seeded area is forecast to rise marginally from 2018-19 to 1.5 Mha because of good returns relative to other crops and strong export demand. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 3.7 Mt due to higher area seeded and trend yields.
However, supply is expected to fall marginally due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to be lower than the current crop year but carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price in 2019-20 is expected to be unchanged from the previous year.
Lentils
For 2018-19, exports are forecast to rise to 1.7 Mt. India, EU and United Arab Emirates are currently the top three export markets. Through August to December of this crop year, Canadian lentil exports total over 0.7 Mt, up 17% from this same period in 2017-18.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease marginally but remain at high levels. The overall average price is forecast to fall sharply due to large carry-out stocks.
During the month of February, the on-farm price of large green lentils fell by $25/t and the price of red lentils fell by C$5/t in Saskatchewan. This was due to expectations of another large pulse winter crop in India.
Large green lentil prices are forecast to maintain a $65/t premium over red lentil prices, compared to a $340/t premium in 2017-18.
For 2018-19, US lentil production, dominated by the green types, is estimated by the USDA at 0.38 Mt, up 13% from 2017-18. Despite this, Canadian lentil exports to the US to-date (August to December) are higher than last year at this time at 32 Kt.
For 2019-20, area seeded in Canada is expected to fall to 1.35 Mha, due to lower returns relative to other crops. A higher yield is forecast but production is still expected to fall to 2.0 Mt. Supply is expected to fall to 2.8 Mt with slightly smaller carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be higher at 1.8 Mt as markets adjust to the lack of import demand from India.
Carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to increase from 2018-19 with the assumption of an average grade distribution and discounts for lower grades.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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