MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea production may rise to 4 million tonnes (Mt), up 12 percent from 3.58 million tonnes in 2018-19 due to higher area and similar yields, according to AAFC’s May outlook report.
For 2019-20, Canadian dry pea seeded area is expected to rise by 12 percent from 2018-19 to 1.6 Mha due to higher returns from the previous year and solid export demand. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 54 percent of the dry pea area, Alberta 42 percent, with the remainder seeded across Canada.
However, supply is forecast to increase only marginally due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be slightly lower with China and Bangladesh as Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 0.4 Mt, but similar to the long-term average.
The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2018-19 due to expectations for increased domestic and world supply.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas is forecast by the USDA to increase marginally to 0.9 million acres.
This is largely due to an expected rise in area in Montana partly offset by a fall in North Dakota area.
Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to fall by 3 percent to 0.7 Mt.
The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of green dry peas to Canada, the Philippines and Yemen, and it is expected the US will maintain its market share in 2019-20.
For 2018-19, Canada’s exports are expected to increase marginally from 2017-18 to 3.1 million tonnes (Mt) due to increased demand from China and Bangladesh. For the August to April period, Canadian exports to the US are below last year’s level, largely due to a larger US dry pea crop.
Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to fall sharply, due to increased domestic use and similar
export demand.
The average dry pea price is expected to increase from the price in 2017-18, as lower yellow pea prices have been more than offset by higher green and feed pea prices.
Over the crop year, the price premium for yellow dry pea prices over green dry peas is expected to average USD 135/t, compared to the USD 40/t premium observed in 2017-18. During the month of May, the yellow pea farmgate prices rose marginally, however, green pea prices fell USD 10/t, as dry pea seeding progress continued at an average pace.
Lentils
For 2018-19, lentil exports are forecast to increase sharply from 2017-18 to 1.8 Mt. The main markets
are India, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Bangladesh. Total domestic use is forecast to be lower than the previous year at 0.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease.
The average price, for all types and grades, is forecast to fall sharply due to higher carry-out stocks for large green types and expectations for a large rabi Indian pulse harvest.
For the crop year, large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a small premium (C$70/t) over red lentil prices.
During May, Saskatchewan large green and red farm gate prices rose by $20/t.
For 2019-20, area seeded to lentils in Canada is expected to decrease by 10 percent to below 1.4 Mha, due to the sharp decline in farmgate lentil prices in the last half of the 2018-19 crop year. Saskatchewan is expected to account for 91 percent of the lentil area, with the remainder in Alberta and Manitoba. Production is forecast by AAFC to fall to 2.0 Mt. Supply is expected to fall, to 2.8 Mt, as a result of lower carry-in stocks and production.
Exports are expected to be unchanged from 2018-19 at 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to 0.5 Mt. The average price is forecast to rise from 2018-19 with higher prices for the top grades with the assumption of an average grade distribution.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 0.55 million acres, down 29 percent from 2018-19 due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota.
Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by AAFC to decrease sharply from 2018-19 to below 300 thousand tonnes (Kt). The main US export markets for lentils continue to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.
Dry Beans
For 2018-19, dry bean exports are expected to be lower than the previous year. The US and the EU remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Angola.
The smaller North American supply is expected to continue to support the majority of US and Canadian dry bean prices for the remainder of 2018-19.
For 2019-20, the area seeded in Canada is forecast to decrease by 8 percent from 2018-19 because of lower expected returns compared to other crops.
By province, Ontario is expected to account for 39 percent of the dry bean area, Manitoba 32 percent, Alberta 18 percent, with the remainder seeded in Saskatchewan, Quebec and the Maritimes.
Production is expected to fall to 0.31 Mt. Supply is still expected to increase by large carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to rise marginally due to the increased supply. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be largely unchanged, due to lower expected supply in North America, particularly for the white pea bean and pinto types.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise marginally to 1.2 million acres as a rise in area seeded in some of the smaller growing states is partly offset by lower area in Nebraska and North Dakota. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is therefore forecast to fall below 1.1 Mt, down 6% from 2018-19.
Chickpeas
For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports are expected to fall to 105 Kt. Increased export demand from Pakistan has been offset by lower demand from the US and Turkey. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply and pressure prices.
The average price is forecast to be sharply lower than that for the previous year due to expectations for an increase in world chickpea supply in the last half of the crop year and the first half of the 2019-20 crop year.
For 2019-20, the area seeded is expected to decrease sharply from 2018-19 as a result of the significantly lower farmgate prices witnessed in the previous year.
By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 82 percent of the chickpea area, with the remainder in Alberta and British Columbia. Production is forecast to fall significantly to 230 Kt. Supply is forecast to increase due to higher carry-in stocks, but softened by lower imports and production.
Exports are forecast to fall marginally and carry-out stocks are expected to increase and remain burdensome. The average price is forecast to fall due to larger world supply, with the expectation of an average grade distribution in 2019-20.
US chickpea area for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to decrease to 0.52 million acres, down 40 percent from the previous year. This is largely due to an expected fall in area in Idaho, North Dakota and Washington.
Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.33 Mt, down 43 percent from 2018-19. The US is expected to continue to hold on to its market share in the EU, Pakistan and Canada.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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