MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea production may rise to 4.3 million tonnes (Mt), up 20 percent from 3.58 million tonnes in 2018-19 due to higher area and similar yields, according to AAFC’s May outlook report.
For 2018-19, exports are estimated at 3.2 million tonnes (Mt), 4% higher than the 2017-18 level, with record exports to Bangladesh offset by lower exports to China and the US. This combines with stronger domestic use, which is expected to result in a decrease in carry-out stocks.
For yellow peas, the crop year average price fell sharply from 2017-18.
Green and feed pea prices were higher than the previous year. With lower carry-out stocks, the average dry pea price was higher than last year.
For 2019-20, Canadian dry pea production in Canada is forecast to rise by 20% from 2018-19, to 4.3 Mt. This is largely due to an increase in harvested area. Saskatchewan is estimated to account for 50% of the dry pea production, with 45% in Alberta, 3% in Manitoba, and the remainder in British Columbia and Eastern Canada. Supply is forecast to rise by only 5% to 4.5 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to fall to 3.1 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US expected to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase. The average price is expected to be similar to 2018-19.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast by USDA to rise by 18% from 2018-19, to over 1.0 million acres.
This is largely due to an expected rise in area in North Dakota and Montana.
Assuming a return to normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to rise to over 0.8 Mt.
The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to markets in Canada and the Philippines. It is expected the US will continue to try increasing its share in these markets in 2019-20.
Lentils
For 2018-19, lentil exports rose to 2.0 Mt, up nearly 30% from the previous year. Exports of red lentils were 1.3 Mt while 0.7 Mt were green lentils. The main markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was lower than 2017-18 at 0.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks decreased to below 0.6 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly lower than it was for 2017-18. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained an average crop year premium of $80/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2019-20, lentil production is forecast to rise by 5% to 2.2 Mt, the fifth largest Canadian lentil crop on record. Similar seeded area is expected to be offset by higher yields than the previous year. Total green lentil area fell while red lentil area increased.
Saskatchewan is expected to account for 89% of the lentil production, with the remainder in Alberta.
Supply, however, is forecast to decrease by 7% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to fall to 1.8 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall compared to the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise from 2018-19 due to lower carry-out stocks.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to fall by over 30% to 0.5 mln ac, due to lower area seeded in Montana and North Dakota.
Assuming a return to average yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US lentil production is therefore forecast by AAFC at below 0.3 Mt, down sharply from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada India, China, Mexico and the EU.
Dry Beans
For 2018-19, dry bean exports were similar to 2017-18 despite the higher Canadian supply and higher world prices. The US and the EU remained the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico.
A favorable exchange rate provided the majority of the support for Canadian dry bean prices in 2018-19.
For 2019-20, Canadian production is forecast to decrease to nearly 0.33 Mt, as mostly unchanged seeded area combines with lower yields. By province, Ontario is expected to account for 36% of the dry bean production, Manitoba 43%, Alberta 16%, with the remainder in Quebec and the Maritimes. Supply is expected to rise with higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be unchanged from the previous year. Canada is expected to maintain its market share in the US, Europe and Japan. Despite this, carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be unchanged due to similar expected supply in North America.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise marginally to 1.3 million acres, largely due to increased area seeded in Michigan and Minnesota. Total US dry bean production for 2019-20 (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by AAFC at 1.1 Mt, unchanged from 2018-19.
Chickpeas
For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports have risen from the previous year to 150 thousand tonnes (Kt). This was largely due to record exports to Pakistan.
However, the higher supply was not offset enough by increased exports, so carry-out stocks are expected to rise significantly. The average price decreased sharply due to higher world supplies.
For 2019-20, production is forecast to fall to 260 Kt, due to lower area and yields. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 88% of the chickpea production, with the remainder in Alberta.
Supply is also forecast to be higher than last year. Exports are forecast to be lower than in 2018-19 and carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply. The average price is forecast to be similar to 2018-19.
US chickpea area for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at 0.56 million acres, down 35% from the previous year. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is therefore forecast by AAFC at 0.36 Mt, down nearly 40% from last year.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
0 Comments 
Post Comment 
