MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada 2019-20 pea production may rise to 4.7 million tonnes (Mt), up 30 percent from 3.58 million tonnes in 2018-19 as higher harvested area, particularly in Saskatchewan, was augmented by higher yields, according to AAFC’s September outlook report.
Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to account for 4.5 Mt of the dry pea production, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada.
Supply is expected to be higher than last year at 5.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to increase to 3.4 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh expected to be Canada’s top three markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise despite expectations for a rise in domestic use.
The average price is expected to be lower than 2018-19, particularly for green pea types.
During the month of September, Saskatchewan green pea farmgate prices rose USD 30/t each while yellow pea farmgate prices fell USD 10/t each. Green dry peas prices are currently at a USD 50/t premium to yellow dry peas compared to last year when green pea prices were a USD 125/t premium to yellow peas.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to increase by 26 percent from last year to 1.1 million acres. This is largely due to an expected rise in area seeded in Montana. With higher yields and lower abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to increase sharply to 1.1 Mt.
The US exported about 230 thousand tonnes (Kt) of dry peas to Canada, the Phillippines and India. The US is expected to maintain its market share in 2019-20 with production higher than the previous year.
For 2018-19, exports were higher than the 2017-18 level at 3.25 million tonnes (Mt) due to record shipments to Bangladesh. This was partly offset by lower exports to China and the US. Domestic use was higher compared to the previous year.
The average dry pea price was USD 270/t due to higher exports which led to decline in carry-out stocks in 2018-19. The average crop year prices for yellow peas was lower than for the previous year but prices were higher than 2017-18 for green types and feed peas.
Lentils
For 2018-19, lentil exports rose to over 2.0 Mt, up 32 percent from the previous year. Of this, 1.3 Mt were red lentil types with 0.7 consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey. Total domestic use was lower than the previous year at 0.35 Mt. Carry-out stocks decreased to 0.6 Mt.
The average Canadian lentil price was significantly lower than 2017-18, despite increased demand. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a record crop year premium of USD 80/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2019-20, due to higher yields, production is estimated to increase by 20 percent to 2.5 Mt with similar harvested area. The production of large green lentils is forecast to be higher than last year at 0.7 Mt and the production of red lentils is expected to be higher than last year at 1.5 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to be similar to last year at nearly 0.3 Mt.
Supply, however, is expected to increase by only 7 percent due to smaller carry-in stocks which partly offset the increased production. Exports are expected to be lower than last year at 1.9 Mt, with Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and the EU expected to remain the top three export markets. Domestic use is forecast to be higher than last year. Carry-out stocks are forecast to be higher than the previous year.
The overall average price is forecast to be lower than 2018-19. Harvest reports suggest a much lower No.1 and No.2 grade distribution than in 2018-19. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a larger premium over red lentil prices than last year.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA at below 0.5 million acres, down almost 38 percent from 2018-19 due to lower area seeded in Montana. With normal yields and lower abandonment, 2019-20 US lentil production is therefore forecast by USDA to fall below 0.3 Mt, 22 percent lower than in 2018-19. US lentil exports are about 0.2 Mt annually with the main markets continuing to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.
Dry Beans
For 2018-19, dry bean exports were slightly lower than 2017-18. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. A favorable exchange rate provided the majority of the support for Canadian dry bean prices in 2018-19.
For 2019-20, production is estimated to rise to nearly 0.36 Mt, consisting of 94 Kt of white pea bean types and 262 Kt of coloured bean types. Production in Manitoba increased while production in Ontario decreased. In Alberta, colored dry bean production increased marginally.
Supply is forecast to increase by 12 percent, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be similar to last year at 345 Kt. The US and the EU are forecast to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with expectations that Canada will continue to expand its market share in Africa. Carry-out stocks are also expected to rise sharply. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease due to the larger North American supply.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 7 percent to 1.3 million acres, largely due to larger area seeded in Minnesota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at 1.1 Mt, down 4 percent from 2018-19. US export markets are expected to continue to be the EU, Mexico and Canada. US dry bean exports total about 0.3-0.4 Mt annually.
Chickpeas
For 2018-19, Canadian chickpea exports rose from the previous year to 147 Kt. Record exports to Pakistan were behind the rise in exports. As a result of the larger supply, and despite an increase in exports, carry-out stocks rose sharply from the previous year. The average price decreased sharply, due to a large increase in world supply for all chickpea types.
For 2019-20, production is estimated to fall 16 percent to 263 Kt, as lower area combines with lower yields.
However, supply is forecast to rise to 403 Kt, due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise marginally due to increased world supply, with the EU, the US and Pakistan expected to remain the main markets for Canadian chickpeas.
Carry-out stocks are expected to increase and continue to be burdensome for prices. The average price is forecast to fall due to expectation for increased world supply. US chickpea area seeded is estimated by the USDA at 0.45 million acres, down 48 percent from 2018-19. With above normal yields and abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at just over 0.3 Mt, sharply lower than 2018-19.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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