MUBAI (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2019-20 pea production may rise to 4.7 million tonnes (Mt), up 30 percent from 3.58 million tonnes in 2018-19, largely due to higher area and yields, especially in Saskatchewan and Alberta where 95% of the peas are grown., according to AAFC’s October outlook report.
Yellow pea production is forecast to rise from last year to nearly 4.1 Mt, while green pea production is also expected to rise to nearly 0.6 Mt. Production of the other remaining dry pea types is expected to fall sharply to about 50 thousand tonnes (Kt).
Supply is forecast to rise to a record 5.1 Mt despite lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 3.4 Mt. From August to September 2019, China, US and India were Canada’s top three markets.
Due to higher supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to rise.
The average price is expected to fall from 2018-19. During October, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose $10/t while the price of green pea types rose $15/t. Current indications of crop quality suggest there will be a decrease in the supply of No.1 and No.2 grade Canadian dry peas when compared to last year. For the crop year to-date, the premium for green dry peas has been $60/t above the price for yellow dry peas versus $130/t last year.
Area seeded to dry peas in the US for 2019-20 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 26% from last year to 1.1 million acres.
This is largely due to higher seeded area in Montana and North Dakota. Yields are expected to be above average and US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise sharply to just over 1.0 Mt. The main export markets for US dry peas are Canada, the Philippines and India.
Lentils
For 2019-20, production is estimated to rise by 20% to 2.5 Mt, due to higher yields. Production of red lentils rose sharply from last year to 1.7 Mt, while large green lentil production fell to 0.6 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to decrease to below 0.3 Mt.
Imports, largely from the US, are forecast at 75 Kt.
However, supply is expected to increase by only 7% due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to rise to 2.1 Mt. To-date, India, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey are the top export markets.
Domestic use is expected to be higher than the previous year due to the lower crop quality. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 550 Kt and remain burdensome. The overall average price is forecast to fall from 2018-19, largely due to a below average grade distribution.
During the month of October, the on-farm price in Saskatchewan for large green lentils rose by $30/t while red lentil prices rose by $35/t. This was largely due to higher export demand and quality concerns for the new crop.
Compared to last year, a decrease in the supply of No.1 or No.2 grade Canadian lentils is expected for 2019-20. To-date, large green lentil prices have maintained a premium of $130/t over red lentil prices, compared to a premium of $85/t in 2018-19.
For 2019-20, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the USDA at below 0.5 million acres, down sharply from 2018-19, largely due to lower area seeded in Montana.
With above normal yields and lower abandonment, 2019-20 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA at 0.3 Mt, down 44% from the production in 2018-19. The main US export markets for lentils to-date are the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.
Dry Beans
For 2019-20, production is estimated to increase to 356 Kt. This includes 94 Kt of white pea bean types and 262 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario decreased due to lower yields and increased in Manitoba due to higher yields. In Alberta, colored dry bean production increased due to higher yields.
Supply is forecast to rise by 12%, due to higher carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be marginally lower than last year. Based on data for August and September, the EU and the US are the top two markets, with smaller volumes exported to Angola and Mexico. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase significantly due to the higher level of supply. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall despite slightly lower North American supply.
Area seeded to dry beans in the US is estimated by the USDA to increase by 7% to 1.3 million acres, mostly due to larger area seeded in Minnesota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at 1.1 Mt, down marginally from 2018-19. The largest decreases are expected for white pea beans and pinto beans. The main US export markets continue to be Canada, EU and Mexico.
Chickpeas
For 2019-20, production is estimated at 263 Kt, a sharp decrease from last year due to lower area seeded and yields. The production of kabuli types is estimated to be lower than the previous year, while desi type production is expected to be marginally higher.
Despite this, the total supply is forecast to increase, due to large carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast at 150 Kt with the US and Pakistan as the top markets. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise largely, due to increased supply and continue to be burdensome. The average price is forecast to decrease sharply, due to expectations for record world production and below average Canadian crop quality.
The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at a 0.45 million acres, 48% lower than in 2018-19.
With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2019-20 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 0.33 Mt, down sharply from 2018-19.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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