NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest March report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global cotton production in 2019/20 to 121.59 million bales (1 US bale = 218kg), compared to 121.33 million bales projected in February.
The global cotton supply and demand estimates show larger production and ending stocks.
Consumption is forecast 850,000 bales lower, as a 1-million-bale cut in China’s expected consumption is only partially offset by increases for Bangladesh and Turkey.
Production is up about 250,000 bales as larger expected crops in Brazil, Chad, and Tajikistan offset a lower US crop and some smaller declines elsewhere.
Ending stocks for 2019/20 are projected 1.3 million bales higher this month and 3.2 million bales higher than in 2018/19.
This month’s 2019/20 US cotton forecasts show lower production, price, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 300,000 bales to 19.8 million, based on the March 10 Cotton Ginnings report.
The final estimates for this season’s US area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2020 Crop Production report.
Domestic mill use and exports are unchanged from last month, and ending stocks are lowered 300,000 bales to 5.1 million.
The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of 60.0 cents per pound is down 2 cents from last month.
USDA-2019-20 (March) vs 2018-19 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock-80.18/80.84
Production-121.59/118.61
Import-43.57/42.50
Consumption-118.16/120.30
Export-43.60/41.35
Ending Stock-83.40/80.18
INDIA
Opening Stock-9.31/9.23
Production-29.50/25.80
Import-2.30/1.80
Consumption-24.50/24
Export-3.60/3.51
Ending Stock-13.01/9.31
US
Opening Stock-4.85/4.20
Production-19.80/18.37
Import-0.01/----
Consumption-3/2.98
Export-16.50/14.76
Ending Stock-5.10/4.85
CHINA
Opening Stock-35.67/37.99
Production-27.25/27.75
Import-8.25/9.64
Consumption-36.50/39.50
Ending Stock-34.50/35.67
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-12.26/8.66
Production-13/13
Consumption-3.40/3.40
Export-8.80/6.02
Ending Stock-13.08/12.26
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-2.50/2.83
Production-6.60/7.60
Import-4.20/2.85
Consumption-10.80/10.70
Export-0.10/0.06
Ending Stock-2.37/2.50
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.78/1.86
Production-0.14/0.14
Import-7.30/7.20
Consumption-7.40/7.40
Ending Stock-1.81/1.78
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.19/1.29
Import-6.80/6.90
Consumption-6.80/7
Ending Stock-1.19/1.19
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-1.57/3.04
Production-0.68/2.20
Export-1.30/3.63
Ending Stock-0.91/1.57
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