Mumbai (Commodities Control) – In its 2019-20 crop year outlook report for Pulses, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimates Canada’s dry peas exports to rise to 3.5 million tonnes (MT), with China, Bangladesh and India ranking as Canada’s top three markets.
However, Canadian dry pea exports to India are expected to fall marginally to 205,000 tonnes. This is due to indications of another large winter pulse crop in India. Until January 2020, Canadian dry pea exports totalled 1.9 MT, only 0.4 MT higher than the same period in 2018-19.
Having said so, Canadian dry pea export demand is expected to remain firm through the remainder of the crop year. Support factors include the continued weakness of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar and strong demand from China.
Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $120/t premium over yellow peas, compared to the $130/t premium in 2018-19.
For 2020-21, seeded area is forecast to be largely unchanged from 2019-20 at 1.75 Million ha because of good returns relative to other crops and strong export demand. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 4.3 MT, while average price in 2020-21 is expected to be unchanged from the previous year.
As for Canadian lentils, 2019-20 exports are forecast to rise to 2.1 MT with India, Turkey and Bangladesh being the top three buyers. Until January through the crop year, Canadian lentil exports crossed over 1 MT, up 5% from this same period in 2018-19.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to below average levels. The overall average price is forecast to rise sharply due to lower carry-out stocks.
Canadian lentil export demand has not been as robust as dry pea demand, particularly for green lentil types. The price premium for large greens over red lentils is forecast to increase to $130/t versus $85/t in 2018-19.
For 2020-21, area seeded in Canada is expected to be unchanged at 1.53 Million ha, due to higher returns relative to other crops. A higher yield is anticipated and production is still expected to rise to 2.2 MT. However, supply is expected to fall to 2.6 MT with smaller carry-in stocks. Even exports are forecast to be lower at 2 MT.
The average price is forecast to increase from 2019-20 with the assumption of an average grade distribution and discounts for lower grades.
Meanwhile, Canadian dry beans exports in 2019-20 are expected to be marginally lower than last year, despite an increase in supply. The EU and the US will likely continue to be the main markets for Canadian dry beans. Canadian carry-out stocks are expected to increase. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise, due to expectations for lower carry-out stocks in North America.
For 2019-20 chickpeas exports are expected to fall significantly from 2018-19, due to decreased import demand from Pakistan. However, the average price is expected to be unchanged from last year, due to smaller world supplies of chickpeas, including in North America.
For 2020-21, the acreage is expected to fall notably from 2019-20 because of higher carry-in stocks and quality issues from last year’s harvest. As a result, production is expected to fall to 200,000 T. Supply is forecast to fall only marginally from 2019-20 due to the burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher and carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average price is forecast to be lower, due to expectations for larger world chickpea supplies.
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