Canadian Dry Peas Export To Touch 3.6 MT, Dry Beans Export Set To Drop In 2019-20

Mumbai (Commodities Control) – In its 2019-20 crop year outlook report for Pulses, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimates Canada’s dry peas exports to rise to 3.6 million tonnes (MT), with China, Bangladesh and India ranking as Canada’s top three markets. Meanwhile Canadian dry pea exports to India are expected to remain firm despite estimate of stronger winter pulses crop in India. Production of the winter pulse crop in India is forecast at over 15 Mt, up nearly 10% from the previous year. If this level of production is realized, it would be the second largest winter crop on record. Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a $130/t premium over yellow peas for the entire year, similar to 2018-19. For 2020-21, seeded area is forecast to be largely unchanged from 2019-20 at 1.75 Million ha because of good returns relative to other crops and strong export demand. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 4.3 MT, while average price in 2020-21 is expected to be unchanged from the previous year. As for Canadian lentils, 2019-20 exports are forecast at 2.1 MT with India, Turkey and UAE being the top three export destinations. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall due to increased export demand. The overall average price is forecast to rise due to lower carry-out stocks. The average price for large green lentils is forecast to maintain a $110/t premium over red lentil prices, compared to a $85/t premium to red lentils in 2018-19. For 2020-21, area seeded in Canada is expected to be unchanged at 1.53 Million ha, due to higher returns relative to other crops. A higher yield is anticipated and production is still expected to rise to 2.2 MT. However, supply is expected to fall to 2.6 MT with smaller carry-in stocks. Even exports are forecast to be lower at 2 MT. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease which will be supportive for prices. The average price for all grades is forecast to rise from 2019-20. As for Canadian dry beans, exports are expected to fall to 345,000 tonnes. The US and the EU remain the top two markets for Canadian dry beans. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to increase due to the quality issues from the late harvest. As a result, there is a smaller than expected canning quality supply in North America. To-date (August-March), white pea bean prices are 10% higher, pinto bean prices are 20% higher, while black bean prices are 5% lower. For 2019-20 chickpeas exports are expected to fall significantly from 2018-19 due to fall in demand from Pakistan. Pakistan, the US and the EU are the main markets for Canadian chickpeas. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply. The average price is forecast to remain unchanged compared to the previous year despite lower export demand and excess North American stocks. For 2020-21, the area seeded is forecast to fall sharply from 2019-20 because of higher carry-in stocks and the potential for lower returns relative to other crops. As a result, production is expected to decrease to 200,000 t. Supply is forecast to decrease from last year despite the burdensome carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to rise and carry-out stocks are expected to be similar to the previous year. The average price is forecast to be similar, due to expectations for an increase in world supply. The area seeded to chickpeas is estimated by the USDA to fall to 0.3 million acres, down over 30% from 2019-20.