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Prices of Canadian Dry Peas, Lentils Seen Steady-to-Firm, Weaker Chickpeas Price Estimates Amid Higher Global Supplies

19 Jul 2020 8:15 pm
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Mumbai (Commodities Control) - In its June outlook report on pulses, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) expects the areas seeded to lentils in 2020 to increase, compared with 2019. However, it sees a decrease in the seeded area for dry peas.


Dry Peas For 2019-20, Canada’s exports are expected to be higher than the 2018-19 level at 3.7 million tonnes (Mt). This has been largely due to record demand from China and strong demand from Bangladesh and India. Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to fall due to the increased export pace despite lower domestic use. The average dry pea price is expected to be similar to 2018-19. Higher yellow and green pea prices have been offset by lower feed pea prices. The prices of green dry peas are expected to maintain a $130/t crop year premium to yellow dry peas, unchanged from 2018-19.


For 2020-21, dry pea seeded area in Canada decreased to 1.7 million hectares (Mha), down marginally from 2019-20 due to good returns relative to other crops and continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan. Production is forecast to rise marginally to 4.25 Mt due to expectations of higher yields. However, supply is forecast to fall marginally to 4.6 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks combined with an increase in production. Exports are forecast to be lower at 3.4 Mt, with China, Bangladesh and the US continuing to be Canada’s top markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise and be higher than the five and ten year averages. The average price is expected to be unchanged from 2019-20, primarily due to expectations for increased world supply.



Lentils For 2019-20


lentil exports are forecast to rise to 2.4 Mt. Of this total, 1.5 Mt are red lentil types with the remaining 0.9 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The main markets are India, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Total domestic use is forecast to be higher at 0.4 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply to 0.1 Mt. The average price for all types and grades is forecast to be higher than the previous year with sharply higher prices for large green and red types. Large green lentil prices are expected to maintain a small premium ($110/t) over red lentil prices. This is largely due to strong export demand for lentils and tightening carry-out stocks.


For 2020-21, Canadian lentil seeded area rose by 12% to 1.7 Mha, due to good forecasted returns compared to other crops. Production is forecast to increase to 2.48 Mt, with supply lower due to smaller carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower at 2.1 Mt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to nearly 0.2 Mt. The average price for all grades and types is forecast to rise from 2019-20, with higher prices from large green and red types. There is an expectation that import demand in the Indian subcontinent will continue to be similar to higher in 2020-21.


In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2020-21 is forecast by the USDA at 0.49 million acres, up marginally from 2019-20. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US lentil production is forecast by AAFC at 255,000 tonnes, up marginally from the previous year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, the EU, India and Mexico.


Dry Beans

For 2019-20, dry bean exports are expected to be higher than 2018-19 with the larger Canadian supply. The US and the EU remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Angola. Smaller North American supply, a below average grade distribution and the weaker Canadian dollar has supported Canadian dry bean prices for the majority of the 2019-20 crop year, particularly Canadian kidney, Great Northern, pinto and white pea bean prices.


For 2020-21, the area seeded in Canada decreased marginally from 2019-20 at 156,000 hectares (ha). Production is forecast to rise to nearly 0.35 Mt, and supply is expected to increase, due to the large production. Exports are forecast to be lower. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to fall due to larger expected supply in North America.


In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to rise by 23% to 1.59 million acres. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, 2020-21 US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is therefore forecast by AAFC to rise to 1.3 Mt, up 40% from 2019-20.


Chickpeas For 2019-20


Canadian chickpea exports are expected to decrease sharply to 105,000 t. This is due to a fall in import demand from Pakistan. Carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply. The average price has been pressured by an increase in North American chickpea supply but remains similar to 2018-19.


For 2020-21, the area seeded fell by 24% from 2019-20 due to the lower farmgate prices received in the previous year. Production is forecast by AAFC at 200,000 t, down 21% from the previous year, due to lower seeded area despite higher expected yields. Supply is forecast to rise from 2019-20. Exports are forecast to rise and carry-out stocks are forecast to fall. The average price is forecast to fall marginally due to a larger world supply, with the expectation of an average grade distribution.


US chickpea production is forecast by AAFC at 200,000 t, a 30% decrease from the previous year. The US is expected to continue to export to the EU, Canada and Pakistan.


       
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