New Delhi (Commodities Control) - For the sugar season 2020-21, India has a production estimate of nearly 305-310 Lakh tons. Centre’s first advance estimates for the sugar season is awaited, while Industry forecasts a hefty sugar output for next season.
As per Government estimates, cane cultivation is nearly over and has been covered in 51.95 Lk Ha, up 1.2% from last and this area may expand more.
According to a senior official of a top agro company, “sugar output is seen reaching 320-325 Lk tons. Meanwhile cane is utilised in ethanol production a well. So a portion of cane, equivalent to producing 15 Lk tons of sugar, may be utilised for ethanol output. This will lead to sugar output of nearly 305-310 Lk tons, which is higher than 275 Lk tons produced last year.”
According to the senior official, cane crop is coming up well. However cane output and recovery depends a lot on rains.
Recently, rating agency- ICRA had also released its estimate on sugar output of 305 Lk tons for SS 2020-21.
According to Praful Vitthalani of All India Sugar Traders Association (AISTA), “ The association generally comes out with its estimate in January and it is close to the actual figure most of the time. Last year AISTA released its estimate of 272 Lk tons.”
He adds, “However in case of sugar output, much depends on weather and rains generally. It may be incorrect to predict anything at the moment”.
Bumper Crop in Maharashtra and Karnataka
Experts reveal that cane acreage moved higher in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which will lead to more sugar output. Acreage was affceted last year due to drought like conditions. As per the latest acreage updates by Agricultural Ministry, area under cane cultivation has upped 17.5% as compared with last year to 9.87 Lk Ha in Maharashtra.
The average acreage for the state turns out to be 8.66 Lk Ha. In the case of Karnataka, area under cane cultivation has increased by 1.64% to 5.58 Lk Ha, while the average acreage happens to be 4.34 Lk Ha. However ICRA sees Maharashtra output rising 64% to 101 Lk tons and up 24% in Karnataka at 43 Lk tons.
Output Unchanged in Uttar Pradesh
Industry sources reveal that cane acreage in Uttar Pradesh will be same as compared with last year. If the recovery is on track, the output may rise a bit. Government data reveals that cane acreage has touched 23.92 Lk ha in U.P., so far, which is slightly more than 23.74 Lk Ha for the corresponding period last year.
Meanwhile the five year acreage for the state for the corresponding period sits around 22.27 Lk Ha. Although ICRA estimates a fall of 3%, as compared with last year, in sugar production at 123 Lk tons.
ISMA Forecasts Sugar Output of 305 lk Tons
Sugar Body - Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) released its sugar estimate report during June-end. The association estimated cane acreage rising from 48.41 Lk Ha in the last season to 52.28 Lk Ha this season, while the next season sugar output is estimated at 320 Lk Ha. In case of cane diversion of 15 Lk tons to ethanol blending, sugar output is seen around 305 Lk tons.
ISMA’s Next Estimate in September
According to Abhinash Verma - DG, ISMA, “ the next forecast is expected in September based on the satellite imaging survey and association’s estimates.”
Estimate of Reduced Opening Stock
It is to be noted that the stock for the ongoing sugar season is likely to dip despite bumper sugar output, due to higher export numbers.
Last season ended with a hefty stock of 145 Lk tons, while the output stands at 275 Lk tons. This takes the nation's total sugar availability to 420 Lk tons. So after consumption of 250 lk tons of sugar and 55 Lk tons of export, the new season is likely to commence at an opening sock of 115 Lk tons. If the next season yields 310 Lk tons, then the total sugar availability for 2020-21 will touch 425 Lk tons.
(Commodities Control Bureau)
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