NEW DELHI, Oct 22 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2021-22 dry pea production may fall to 2.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 45 percent from 2020-21, according to AAFC’s latest outlook report, published on Oct 20.
For 2020-21, exports were lower than the 2019-20 level at 3.58 million tonnes (Mt) despite record shipments to China, which was offset by lower exports to Bangladesh and India. Domestic use was higher compared to the previous year.
The average dry pea price was 28% higher at $340/t, due to strong demand, however, the larger supply led to a rise in carry-out stocks in 2020-21. The average crop year prices for yellow peas and feed peas were higher than for the previous year, but prices were lower than 2019-20 for green types.
For 2021-22, production in Canada is estimated to decrease by 45% to just over 2.5 Mt due to significantly lower yields attributed to the drought in Western Canada. Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to account for 2.3 Mt of the dry pea production, with the remainder of the production in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada.
Supply is expected to be sharply lower by 37% over last year at nearly 3.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to fall sharply to 2.3 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh expected to be Canada’s top three markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall with expectations for a small decrease in domestic use.
The average price is expected to increase by 71% from 2020-21 at a record $580/t.
During the month of September, Saskatchewan green pea farmgate prices rose $45/t, while yellow pea farmgate prices increased $35/t. Green dry peas prices are currently at a $20/t premium to yellow dry peas compared to last year when green pea prices were a $5/t premium to yellow peas.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 3% from last year to just below 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to an expected fall in area seeded in North Dakota. With lower yields and higher abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 44% to 0.55 Mt. The US exported about 380 thousand tonnes (Kt) of dry peas in 2020-21, mostly to Canada, the Philippines and China. The US is expected to try and maintain its market share in 2021-22 despite production lower than the previous year.
Lentils
For 2020-21, lentil exports fell to 2.3 Mt, down 15% from the previous year. Of this, 1.5 Mt were red lentil types, with 0.8 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey.
Total domestic use was higher than the previous year at 0.46 Mt. Carry-out stocks nearly doubled to 0.4 Mt.
The average Canadian lentil price was significantly higher than 2019-20 with an increase of 33%, due to increased demand. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year premium of $135/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2021-22, due to sharply lower yields as a result of the drought in Western Canada, production is estimated to decrease by 37% to 1.8 Mt, the lowest since 2009-10. The production of large green lentils is forecast to decrease from last year to 0.3 Mt and the production of red lentils is expected to be lower than last year at 1.3 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to be slightly lower than last year at 0.15 Mt.
Supply, however, is expected to be 28% lower than last year as larger carry-in stocks partly offset the decreased production. Exports are expected to be 18% lower than last year at 1.9 Mt, with India, the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh and Turkey expected to remain the top export markets. Domestic use is forecast to be lower than last year at 333 Kt. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease sharply over the previous year to below 0.1 Mt.
The overall average price is forecast to be 63% higher than 2020-21, reaching a record $1,050/t. Large green lentil prices are forecast to have a larger premium over red lentil prices when compared to last year.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA at 0.7 million acres, up over 35% from 2020-21 due to higher area seeded in Montana. With lower yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US lentil production is therefore forecast by USDA to fall to 0.23 Mt, 31% lower than in 2020-21. US lentil exports are about 0.2 Mt annually with the main markets continuing to be the EU, Canada, India and Mexico.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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