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Canada's 2021-22 Dry Peas Supply may Fall 37% y/y to 3.1 million tonnes

20 Nov 2021 5:16 pm
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NEW DELHI, Nov 20 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2021-22 dry peas production is estimated to fall by 45 percent to 2.5 million tonnes (Mt), the lowest since 2011-12, according to AAFC’s latest outlook report, published on November 19.

This is largely due to poor yields from the drought, especially in Saskatchewan where 52% of the peas are grown.

Yellow pea production is forecast to be lower than last year at 2.0 Mt, while green pea production is expected to fall below 0.4 Mt. Production of the other remaining dry pea types is expected higher at 220 thousand tonnes (Kt).

Supply is forecast to be only 37% lower than last year at 3.1 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to decrease significantly to 2.3 Mt. From August to September 2021, China and the US were Canada’s top two markets. With the smaller supply, carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply.

The average price is expected to increase by 76% from 2020-21 to a record $600/t. During October, the on-farm price of yellow peas in Saskatchewan rose $55/t while the price of green pea types rose $10/t.

Current indications of crop quality suggest a smaller percentage of dry peas that will grade No.1 and No.2 grade Canadian dry peas when compared to last year. This coupled with the sharply lower Canadian output will result in a lower supply of No.1 and No. 2 dry peas for this crop year. For the crop year to-date, there has been a small discount for green dry peas to yellow dry peas, versus a green pea premium of $5/t over yellow peas in 2020-21.

Area seeded to dry peas in the US for 2021-22 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 3% from last year to below 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to lower seeded area in North Dakota. Yields are estimated to be below average and US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to fall by 44% to just over 0.5 Mt. The main export markets for US dry peas are Canada, the Philippines and India.

Lentils

For 2021-22, production is estimated to fall by over 1.0 Mt (-37%)to 1.8 Mt, due to poor yields from the drought in western Canada. Production of red lentils fell sharply from last year to 1.3 Mt, while large green lentil production decreased to just over 0.3 Mt. Production of the other remaining lentil types is expected to fall to below 0.2 Mt.

However, supply is expected to fall by only 28% due to higher carry-in stocks.

Exports are expected to be rationed to 1.9 Mt. To-date, India, Turkey and United Arab Emirates are the top export markets. Domestic use is expected to be limited by the tight supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall to 50 Kt. The overall average price is forecast to rise by 67% from 2020-21, to a record $1080/t, with an above average grade distribution.

During the month of October, the on-farm price in Saskatchewan for large green lentils and red lentil prices were unchanged. This was largely due to below average export demand. Compared to last year, an decrease in the supply of No.1 or No. 2 grade Canadian lentils is expected for 2021-22. To-date, large green lentil prices have maintained a premium of $280/t over red lentil prices, compared to a $135/t premium in 2020-21.

For 2021-22, US area seeded to lentils is forecast by the USDA at over 0.7 million acres, up 35% from 2020-21, largely due to higher area seeded in Montana. With poor yields and higher abandonment, 2021-22 US lentil production is therefore forecast by the USDA at 0.23 Mt, down 31% from the production in 2020-21. The main US export markets for lentils to-date are the EU, Canada and Mexico.

Dry Beans

For 2021-22, production is estimated to have decreased by 28% to 352 Kt. This includes 103 Kt of white pea bean types and 249 Kt of colored bean types. Production in Ontario and Manitoba decreased due to lower yields. In Alberta, colored dry bean production increased due to higher area.

Supply is forecast to fall by only 5%, due to higher carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast to be marginally higher than last year. Based on data for August and September, the EU and the US are the top two markets, with smaller volumes exported to Angola and Mexico. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease due to the lower level of supply and higher demand.

The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise by 27% to a record $1180/t due to lower North American supply.

Area seeded to dry beans in the US is estimated by the USDA to decrease by 20% to 1.4 million acres, mostly due to smaller area seeded in North Dakota. US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is forecast by the USDA at just over 1.0 Mt, down 31% from 2020-21. The largest decreases are expected for white pea beans and pinto beans. The main US export markets continue to be the EU and Mexico.

Chickpeas

For 2021-22, production is estimated at 64 Kt, a 70% decrease from last year due to lower area seeded and yields. The production of both kabuli and desi types is estimated to be lower than the previous year.

Total supply is forecast to decrease by 24%, due to record carry-in stocks.

Exports are forecast at 120 Kt with the US and Turkey as the top markets.

Carry-out stocks are expected to fall, largely due to decreased supply. The average price is forecast to rise by 66%, to a record $1065/t, due to below average Canadian crop quality, and expectations for decreased world production.

The USDA has estimated US chickpea area seeded at a 0.38 million acres, 39% lower than in 2020-21. With below average yields, 2021-22 US chickpea production is forecast by the USDA at 0.14 Mt, down 29% from 2020-21.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)


       
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