Mumbai, 5 Aug (Commoditiescontrol): The above normal rainfall received during July, cumulative precipitation levels since June 1 to July 31 have been pushed up 8% above the long period average, is a good news for India's agriculture sector. Although, their are some regions in the country that are suffering from scanty rains, the regions in central and western part of the country have to sustain with wet weather in the last week of July. Which is not so good news for now, as there is likelihood of excessive rainwater damaging standing crops and also hurting yields. Dry spell in the fist week of August, has helped to dry fields as a brisk pace, but farmers and experts are reluctant to take call on output prospect. Rather, they advise to wait till harvesting.
According to report, Kharif tidings as of end-July are favourable as sowing operations have taken place in 82.34 million hectares, up by 2% from the corresponding period last year. There are indications that farmers are responding to price signals. Lower realisations have led them to shift from pulses to commercial crops like soya bean (and cotton) as ruling market prices are much higher than minimum support prices (MSPs). Although sowing for pulses is not very different from year-earlier levels, farmers are reducing arhar (pigeon pea) while increasing acreage for moong (green gram), urad (black gram) and other pulses. Sowing operations are expected to continue till mid-August. Good rains thus will not only boost kharif food grain output but also ensure sufficient moisture for the rabi or winter season.
During the current kharif season from June, where surplus rainfall in much of the South Peninsula, Central and Northwest India has led to the overall pulses area sown till July 29 increasing by 2.9 per cent over the same period of last year. But area under the main kharif pulses crop, arhar (pigeon-pea), has fallen by 13.5 per cent, while rising for moong (green gram) and urad (black gram). The latter pulses are of shorter duration (60-90 days), unlike arhar that takes 160-180 days. Farmers, especially in the two major pulses-growing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, have basically diverted arhar area to soyabean and cotton.
Urad Weather Update:
Heavy to very heavy rainfall activity over Urad growing regions of Maharashtra and Telangana has resulted in severe crop damage in these states. As per the market estimates around 70,000-80,000 ha has been damaged due to heavy rains/floods in mid July. However, last week witnessed some dry weather which has helped to revive some crop conditions in these states but forecast of heavy rains in coming weeks is likely to damage more and standing crops is expected to impact further.
As per the farmers they haven’t able to enter the field yet due excess wetness, so they are not in a position to assess the exact damage. Stunted growth is predominant in these states, which will hinder the yield potential along with the acreage loss.
Crop condition in other major growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan is reported ‘good’ so far. This may help offset the damages witnessed in other states. But, one needs to watch weather closely till the harvesting season.
Sowing Update:
Sowing as on 29th July across India is reported at 28.0 lakh ha marginally higher by 0.3% y/y. Sowing is up in major growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan due to early arrival of monsoon and this is likely to narrow moving ahead.
Sowing in other states such as Gujarat and Karnataka is reported lower due to shift to other crops such as Maize, Soybean, Cotton, etc. There is need to assess the exact acreage loss in Maharashtra, Gujarat and South Indian states to come to clear picture on final acreage. Preliminary estimates peg Maharashtra crop loss at 9 lakh hectares due to excessive rains.
Tur Weather Update:
Heavy to very heavy rainfall activity over Tur growing regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana has resulted in severe crop damage in these states. As per the market estimates around 120,000-150,000 ha has been damaged due to heavy rains/floods in mid July. However, dry weather spell witnessed last week is likely to have helped revive crop conditions in these states but forecast of heavy rains in coming weeks spell negative. A fresh rainfall is likely to cause more damage to recently sown and standing crops. There are reports of yellowing of leaves across the state and snail incidence in Marathwada regions which will impact the density of the crop as well.
As per the farmers they are unable to enter the field yet due excess wetness, hence they are not in a position to assess the exact damage. Stunted growth is predominant in these states, which is likely to hinder the yield potential along with the acreage loss.
Sowing Update:
As on 29th July acreage under Tur is reported at 36.1 lakh ha, lower by 13.5% due to acreage loss across the growing states. Acreage loss is drastic due to excess wet field which has delayed the sowing activity by 10-12 days during current season. Sowing is completed across the growing states and is expected to narrow further in coming weeks.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: +91-22-40015505)
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