NEW DELHI, Oct 6 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2022-23 dry peas production is estimated to rise by 59% from 2.26 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021-22 to 3.6 million tonnes, according to AAFC’s latest September outlook report.
The production was estimated higher by 46 percent to 3.3 million tonnes in the August forecast.
For 2022-23, Canadian dry pea production is estimated by Statistics Canada (STC) to rise by 59% from 2021-22, to 3.6 Mt, due to higher yields. Saskatchewan and Alberta are expected to account for 51% and 41% of the dry pea production, respectively, with the remainder in Manitoba, British Columbia and Eastern Canada. As a result, total supply is forecast to rise sharply despite lower carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to rise to 2.7 Mt, with China, the US and Bangladesh continuing to be Canada’s top markets.
Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise. The average price is expected to be sharply lower than 2021-22, at $440/t, due to higher world supply and increased carry-out stocks in Canada.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2022-23 is forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to fall by 6% from 2021-22, to 0.9 million acres. This is largely due to a fall in area in North Dakota. With lower abandonment and higher yields, US dry pea production is forecast by the USDA to rise 29% to 501 Kt. The major US export markets for dry peas, were China, Canada, the Philippines and Yemen.
For 2021-22, exports were significantly lower than the 2020-21 level at 1.9 million tonnes (Mt) due to lower shipments to China and no trade with Bangladesh despite record exports to the US. Domestic use was lower compared to the previous year. The average dry pea price was a record $590/t, rising sharply from 2020-21 due to lower global supply and a decrease in Canadian carry-out stocks.
Lentils
For 2021-22, lentil exports fell to 1.6 Mt, down 31% from the previous year. Of this, 1.0 Mt were red lentil types, with 0.6 Mt consisting of the green lentil types. The leading export markets were Turkey, India and the United Arab Emirates. Total domestic use was lower than the previous year at 0.3 Mt.
Carry-out stocks fell sharply to 0.22 Mt. The average Canadian lentil price was significantly higher than 2020-21 at $970/t. No.1 large green lentil prices maintained a crop year premium of $325/t over No.1 red lentil prices.
For 2022-23, lentil production is estimated to rise by 73% to 2.8 Mt due to higher yields. Seeded area was marginally higher, but above average yields are expected, with the majority of the increase being red lentil types. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 84% of the lentil production and 16% in Alberta.
With the sharp rise in production, total supply is forecast to increase by nearly 1.0 Mt to 3.1 Mt. Exports are forecast to be higher at 2.3 Mt. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase sharply to 0.4 Mt. The average price for all grades is forecast to be significantly lower than 2021-22 at $750t, due to higher carry-out stocks and expectations for a increase in world supply.
In the US, the area seeded to lentils for 2022-23 is forecast by the USDA at 0.67 million acres, 5% lower than 2021-22, due to reduced plantings in Montana and North Dakota. However, with higher yields and lower abandonment, US lentil production is forecast by USDA at 0.35 Mt, up 47% from last year. The main US export markets for lentils are expected to continue to be Canada, Mexico and the EU, particularly Spain.
Dry Beans
For 2021-22, dry bean exports were lower than 2020-21 at 327 kt. The EU and the US were the top two markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Angola, Japan and Mexico. A smaller North American crop provided the majority of the support for the record Canadian dry bean prices in 2021-22.
For 2022-23, Canadian production is forecast to fall by 21% to 305 kt, due to a decrease in seeded area, despite higher yields. By province, Manitoba is expected to account for 40% of the dry bean production, Ontario 38% and Alberta 22%.
Total supply is expected to decrease by only 5%, due to record carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be higher than the previous year. As a result, carry-out stocks are expected to fall. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to rise to a record $1,250/t, due to lower expected supply in North America.
In the US, area seeded to dry beans is forecast by the USDA to decrease by 8% to below 1.3 million acres, largely due to lower area seeded in North Dakota and Minnesota. Total US dry bean production for 2022-23 is forecast by the USDA at 1.1 Mt, 8% higher than in 2021-22.
Chickpeas
For 2021-22, Canadian chickpea exports rose from the previous year to a near record 176 thousand tonnes (Kt). Increased demand from the US and Turkey were behind the rise in exports. With the lower supply and an increase in exports, carry-out stocks fell sharply from the previous year. The average price increased sharply to $975/t.
For 2022-23, production is forecast to rise significantly to 157 Kt, driven by sharply higher average yields coupled with larger area. By province, Saskatchewan is expected to account for 87% of the chickpea production, with 13% in Alberta.
Total supply is forecast to fall by 9% to 0.35 Mt due to lower carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to be lower than 2021-22, however, due to the lower supply, carry-out stocks are expected to decrease for the third consecutive year. The average price is forecast to fall to $900/t due to expectations for a larger world chickpea supply.
US chickpea area for 2022-23 is forecast by the USDA to fall by 2% to 0.36 million acres. With higher yields and lower abandonment, 2022-23 US chickpea production is forecast by USDA at 178 kt, up 37% from the previous year. The main export markets are Pakistan, the EU and Canada.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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