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Canada's 2022-23 wheat production estimated higher by 56% y/y to 34.70 million tonnes

6 Oct 2022 11:12 am
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NEW DELHI, Oct 6 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's 2022-23 wheat production is pegged higher by 55.65 percent from 22.3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2021-22 to 34.70 million tonnes, according to AAFC’s latest September outlook report.

The 2022-23 production was estimated at 33.70 million tonnes, up 56 percent from 21.65 million tonnes in a year ago, according to the August forecast.


For 2021-22, carry-in stocks and production for durum were both revised by STC in their latest report. Carry-in stocks were raised to 0.81 Mt, up from 0.75 Mt and production is now estimated at 3.04 Mt, up from 2.65 Mt.

Total supply grew to 3.86 Mt and exports to a total of 2.72 Mt, of which 2.7 Mt consisted of grain.

Exports are down 53% year on year due to reduced demand caused by high prices. The top three destinations were Morocco (679 thousand tonnes (kt)), the USA (499 kt) and Algeria (413 kt). Carry-out stocks came in at 0.57 Mt, down 59% compared to 2021-22 and the third lowest on record.

The average Saskatchewan (SK) spot price for Canadian Western Amber Durum No.1, 13% protein (CWAD, 1, 13) was $631/tonne.

For 2022-23, STC forecasts Canadian durum production at 6.12 Mt, more than double last year’s volumes thanks to an increase in seeded area and recovery of yields. Total supply is forecast at 6.71 Mt, 74% more than in 2021-22 and 4% more than the five-year average of 6.44 Mt.

Exports are expected to increase due to the recovery in supply, decline in prices, and increase in demand from Europe and North Africa (particularly Morocco, where poor weather led to disappointing harvests). Exports are forecast at 5.0 Mt, up 84% from 2021-22.

Domestic use is forecast at an average level of 0.81 Mt, and carry out stocks is expected to increase to 0.90 Mt due to the increase in supply outweighing demand. Although this is a 59% increase over current levels, it remains 17% less than the five-year average.

World durum production is forecast to increase by 8% to 32.99 Mt, but remain 3% below the last five year average, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Supply is expected to remain relatively stable at 38.93 Mt because of low carry in stocks. Use is expected to reach 33.58 Mt, 2% more than in 2021-22, but still below average levels. Trade is anticipated at 8.71 Mt due to a recovery in exports from North America, while carry-out stocks are forecast to contract to 5.36 Mt, from 5.9 Mt this year.

US durum production is estimated to double to 2.01 Mt according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The average SK spot price for CWAD 1, 13% for 2022-23 was reduced to $425/tonne, pressured by larger supplies and appreciation of the US dollar.

Wheat (excluding durum)

For 2021-22, STC also revised the estimates for Canadian wheat production and carry-in stocks; the former was raised 1% to 19.26 Mt and the latter by 5% to 5.14 Mt, bringing total supply up to 24.55 Mt.

Exports are estimated at 12.41 Mt, of which 12.19 Mt consisted of unprocessed grain; this is 40% less than in 2020-21 due to the low Canadian supply accompanied by high prices for the high quality, high protein crop. The top destinations for Canadian wheat were Japan (1.6 Mt), Indonesia (1.2 Mt) and the USA (1.1 Mt). Carry-out stocks closed in at just a little over 3.10 Mt, the lowest since 2007-2008.

The average SK spot price for Canadian Western Red Spring, no.1, 13.5% protein (CWRS 1, 13.5) was $447/tonne.

For 2022-23, production is estimated by STC to rebound to 28.59 Mt, up 48% year on year and 12% more than the five-year average thanks to an 11% increase in seeded area and return to trend yields. Spring wheat production is estimated to grow 60% to 26.05 Mt with the following provincial breakdown: MB (5.05 Mt), SK (10.61 Mt), AB (9.94 Mt), BC (81.27 Mt). On the other hand, winter wheat production will fall 16% to 2.53 Mt, with the largest decline expected in Ontario (-24%).

Total supply of wheat is estimated to increase by 29% to 31.79 Mt, this is also 4% more than the last five-year average. Exports are forecast to rebound as a result of the larger supply and reduced prices; they are forecast at 18.2 Mt, slightly above average levels.

Domestic use is forecast to fall slightly to 8.19 Mt with a reduction in feed use. Carry-out stocks are currently pegged at 5.40 Mt.

All wheat

World all wheat production is forecast to rise about 4 Mt to 783.92 Mt, according to the USDA. Supply declines close to 11 Mt constrained by low carry-in stocks, especially from major exporters; it is forecast at 1,059.59 Mt.

Total use is expected to increase by over 3.7 Mt to 791.02 Mt due to an increase in feed and residual use, especially in Russia and the EU. Exports are forecast to increase 3% to 208.89 Mt, while carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten another 2.6% to 268.57 Mt, with 54% held in China and another 2% in the Ukraine.

US all wheat production is estimated to rise 4% to 48.52 Mt, but total supply is expected to fall 1% due to tight carry-in stocks. US exports are pegged at 22.45 Mt, up from 21.78 Mt last year; domestic use is forecast to reach 30.43 Mt, relatively on par with last year’s levels. Carry-out stocks are forecast to tighten another 8% to 16.60 Mt.
The average spot price for SK CWRS 1, 13.5% is reduced to $400/tonne, under pressure from larger world supplies, increased trade activity and appreciation of the US dollar.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)

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