NEW DELHI, Jan 22 (Commoditiescontrol) - Canada's dry peas production in the 2023-24 crop year starting fom August 1 is estimated to fall by 5% from 3.42 million tonnes (Mt) in the 2022-23 crop year to 3.25 million tonnes, according to AAFC’s latest January 2023 outlook report.
For dry peas and other pulses, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31.
For 2023-24, seeded area is forecast to fall from 2022-23 to 1.3 million hectares (Mha), because of good returns relative for other crops. Production is expected to fall by 5% to 3.25 Mt, with an expectation of trend yields.
Supply is forecast to rise marginally to 3.9 Mt due to higher carry-in stocks. With the expectation of a small increase in exportable supply, exports to other countries are expected to be higher than 2022-23 and carry-out stocks are expected to remain unchanged.
The average price is expected to be lower than 2022-23, due to lower dry pea prices and increased world supply.
For 2022-23, Canadian dry pea exports for the August to November period were 1.1 million tonnes (Mt), 15% higher than for the same period last year. China imported the largest portion to-date at 0.63 Mt. The leading export market, after China, is Bangladesh at 0.18 Mt. Total Canadian dry pea exports for the crop year are forecast to rise by over 31% to 2.5 Mt due to increased Canadian supply.
Canadian dry pea supply is estimated to rise by 35% as higher production is partly offset by lower carry-in stocks. With the increased supply, carry-out stocks are expected to rise sharply and pressure prices throughout 2022-23.
The average price is expected to be 22% lower than 2021-22, at $460/tonne (t), due to lower prices for all types of dry peas. Green pea prices are expected to maintain a premium of $25/t over yellow peas for the crop year, compared to the $60/t discount green peas had to yellow peas last year.
US dry pea production is estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 0.69 Mt, up 77% from 2021-22. This was largely due to improved yields. As a result, Canadian dry pea exports to the US are forecast to be 0.3 Mt in 2022- 23, lower than the previous year.
Lentils
For 2022-23, Canadian lentil exports for the August to November period totaled 0.84 Mt, 28% higher than the amount exported during the same period in 2021-22. India imported the largest portion to-date at 0.2 Mt. The leading export market, after India, is Turkey, followed by the United Arab Emirates.
Total Canadian lentil exports for 2022-23 are forecast to rise sharply to 2.3 Mt. The supply of lentils in Canada is estimated to be over 0.5 Mt higher than last year as lower carry-in stocks partly offset the higher production. With the sharply higher supply and an increase in exports, this is expected to lead to lower carry-out stocks for the end of the 2022-23 crop year.
The overall average price is forecast to fall by 18% from last year to $800/t. Weaker prices for all lentil types, with the exception of French green types have combined with an above average grade distribution. As a result, there have been lower discounts for the lower grades for all lentil types. Prices for No. 1 large green lentils are expected to maintain a premium of $330/t above the price of No. 1 red lentils over the crop year, compared to a $325/t premium in 2021-22.
US lentil production is estimated at 249 thousand tonnes (Kt), up 66% from the previous year. As a result, Canadian lentil exports to the US are forecast at 75 Kt for 2022-23, down from the previous year.
For 2023-24, seeded area in Canada is expected to fall marginally to 1.73 Mha. Production is forecast to rise by 15% to 2.65 Mt. With lower carry-in stocks, supply is expected to rise by only 0.2 Mt to 2.8 Mt. Exports are forecast to be unchanged from 2022-23 at 2.3 Mt with marginally higher exportable supplies.
Carry-out stocks are expected to rise to 250 Kt. With the assumption of an average grade distribution and grade discounts, the overall lentil price is forecast to fall from 2022-23.
Dry beans
For 2022-23, exports are forecast to be similar to last year. The European Union (EU) and the US are expected to remain the main markets for Canadian dry beans, with smaller volumes exported to Japan and Mexico.
Despite the smaller supply, carry-out stocks are expected to be lower than the previous year due to the similar exports. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to decrease by 2% to $1,180/t, due to higher production and supply in North America.
US total dry bean production (excluding chickpeas) is estimated by the USDA at 1.17 Mt, up 14% from 2021-22. US dry bean production was higher for all bean types. This is expected to continue to pressure Canadian dry bean prices for 2022-23.
For 2023-24, the area seeded is forecast to be unchanged because of ample carry-out stocks and favorable potential returns for other crops, particularly soybeans and corn. Production is expected to decrease marginally to 0.29 Mt despite similar area but with expectations for lower yields, particularly in Manitoba.
Supply is expected to be lower at 0.51 Mt. Exports and carry-out stocks are also forecast to be lower than 2022-23. The average Canadian dry bean price is forecast to be lower than the previous year due to expectations for a larger North American supply.
Chickpeas
For 2022-23, exports are forecast to be higher than 2021-22 at 195 Kt. The US, the EU and Pakistan have been the main markets for Canadian chickpeas to-date. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall to nearly half of those in the previous year. The average price is forecast to rise to a record $1,045/t, due to strong world demand and lower carry-out stocks.
US chickpea production is estimated by USDA to rise to 166 Kt, up 28% from 2021-22, due to improved yields.
For 2023-24, the area seeded is forecast to rise from 2022-23 because of expectations for good returns relative to competing crops. With a return to trend yields, production is expected to rise sharply to 170 Kt. Supply is expected to decrease by 12% from last year as the higher production is more than offset by smaller carry-in stocks.
Exports are forecast to be lower than the previous year and carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price is forecast to be lower than 2022-23 due to expectations for an increase in world supply.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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