Week Ahead: Masoor's price recovery could be short-lived.

MUMBAI, February 4 (Commoditiescontrol): Imported masoor prices managed to close with gains for the week ending February 4, reversing a downward trend that had been in place for some weeks. The main reason for the downtrend reversal was a temporary disruption in the supply of imported Masoor.

The price of imported Masoor increased by Rs 50 to Rs 100 per 100 kg in the major markets because of a brief disturbance in the supply of imported Masoor. It was reported that the delivery process from the vessel M.V. Kotor, which has already arrived in Kolkata port carrying 29,000 MT of Australian Masoor, has been suspended due to the lack of a Plant Quarantine report(as Australian authorities have not issued it) and the presence of weed seed in a sample drawn from this cargo. As a result importers cannot receive and sell this cargo due to the halting of the discharge procedure.

According to a shipping agency, a vessel M V DARYA GANGA carrying 16,500 tonnes of Australia nipper Masoor in bulk is expected to arrive at Mumbai port on February 12, 2023.

Vessel M V BELYAMATO carrying 44,971 tonnes of Canada red Masoor, is expected to arrive at Mundra port on February 8, 2023.

Vessel M V Spring Melody carrying 10000 tonnes of Canada red Masoor is expected to arrive at Mumbai port on February 7, 2023.

Similarly, domestic variety Masoor moved higher by Rs 50/100Kg at Indore on new need-based mills purchase at lower rates, following firm cues in imported Masoor. On the other hand, the Madhya Pradesh line Masoor in Delhi extended fall by Rs 175/100Kg on slack buying as offtake in Masoor dal was negligible.

Masoor dal processed from Canada was firmed by Rs 50 at Rs 7,150-7,350/100Kg on need-based buying, while Masoor dal processed from the domestic variety at Katni was quoted weak by Rs 50 at Rs 6,650-7,150.







As of February 3rd, 2023, the acreage of Rabi Masoor in India was 4.75% higher than the same period in 2021. An 18.52 Lakh Ha of Rabi Masoor cultivation was reported as compared to 17.68 Lakh Ha in 2021.



As per the technical chart - Mumbai Canada Masoor - More near-term weakness may lie ahead, we see next support at Rs 5,700. Click here

International Updates

As per the latest market information from the Canadian Grain Commission, Lentil movement has been considerably better, with farmers delivering 1.23 mln tonnes to licensed elevators through the first half of 2022/23. That’s well ahead of both last year and the average pace and is catching up to the stronger 2020/21 pace. Lentil shipments out of elevators are still running strong and have now caught up to 2020/21, even though this year’s supplies are about 600,000 tonnes smaller.

This strong flow of lentil deliveries into elevators and shipments out to export positions means lentil supplies are getting drawn down at a faster pace than usual. That sets the stage for tighter ending stocks for 2022/23.

There are no guarantees the second half of the marketing year will turn out the same as the first half. Production in other countries and demand from importers can (and probably will) change the outlook. Still, the first half has set the tone and the supplies remaining for the second half are looking more certain.

Trend: Masoor prices were temporarily supported by supply disruptions due to the suspension of cargo delivery from an Australian vessel. Furthermore, current spot market prices are lower than the landing cost for shipments due in the next few months (January-February), which will restrict selling pressure at current prices. Masoor prices will also be supported by domestic and Bangladeshi demand for Ramjan. But the current uptrend should be short-lived because around 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes of products are in the pipeline from overseas. Other factors limiting the up move include an extension of import tariff reductions until March 2024 by the Indian government, ongoing NAFED sales for old crops, enhanced domestic and global production forecasts, and a much lower landed cost for far-month shipments than the current spot prices. Furthermore, new domestic crop arrivals are due to begin next month, and arrivals pressure is projected to increase after Holi, potentially decreasing prices again.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)