Week Ahead: White Pea prices may extend fall as sellers remain active

MUMBAI, February 04th (Commoditiescontrol): White pea prices continued to decline for the week ending February 4th, as we had previously anticipated in a few of our weekly reports. Before the arrival of the new harvest, which is expected to begin in the first week of March, farmers and stockists are routinely selling their existing stock. Prices for white peas fluctuated between Rs 4,275 and Rs 4,450 per 100 kg, depending on quality, at the Kanpur market. However, the prices for dal and vatana besan remained unchanged and were quoted at Rs. 3,800/50 kg and Rs. 5,800/100kg, respectively.

According to the most recent sowing estimates, the acreage of India's Rabi Pea crop for 2022-23 was down 4.53% on February 3 compared to the same date in 2021-22. This equates to 9.69 lakh hectares, a decrease from 10.15 lakh hectares the previous year.

International Update

According to the most recent Canadian Grain Commission market data, farm deliveries of peas into licenced elevators during the first half of 2022/23 are 1.725 million tonnes, or half of the 2022 crop. This is 500,000 tonnes greater than the previous year's crop but 150,000 tonnes less than the five-year average. However, keep in mind that the 2022 crop was less than average. Thus deliveries as a percentage of on-farm supplies are in line with the average.

Exports follow a similar pattern. Pea exports reported by the CGC (mostly bulk vessel shipments) are 1.1 million tonnes, up from the previous year but still lagging behind the average rate. It's also significantly lower than in 2020/21, when Canadian supplies were ample, and Chinese demand was high. This year is different in both respects.

This level of delivery and export performance is consistent but not remarkable. As a result, bids have moved sideways since last fall. Unless the pace accelerates in the second part of 2022/23, supplies will be sufficient to meet demand with enough ending stocks. If this is the case, there is unlikely to be significant price growth in the near to medium term.


Trend: According to a Kanpur-based dealer, white pea prices may continue to plummet in the following weeks, reaching 4,000/100 kg by the middle of February. Meanwhile, farmers and stockists are actively selling existing inventory as the arrival of new crops is expected to begin in the first week of March. Furthermore, the availability of low-priced green peas and government distribution programmes has reduced white pea demand.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)