Mumbai, May 29 (Commoditiescontrol): The week ending on May 29, 2023, saw a continued uptrend in imported Tur from Burma and Africa. This increase is primarily due to higher CNF quotes from Myanmar/Africa, a scarcity of readily available imported Tur, a delay in the southwest monsoon as per IMD-Skymet, and escalating mills purchases for immediate needs. Furthermore, the high off-take of Tur dal has contributed significantly to this trend.
The Government's third advance estimates for 2022-23 suggest a 18.72% decrease in Tur production, estimated at 34.3 LMT, compared to the final estimates of 42.2 LMT from 2021-22.
The forward deal price for Lemon Tur, ready for delivery in Chennai, was quoted at Rs 9,500. Nevertheless, the prices for June and July deliveries were marginally higher at Rs 9,550 and Rs 9,850, respectively. The CNF Chennai price of Burma Lemon Tur noted a $70 increase, reaching $1,220.
The Akola market reported a Rs 400 increase in the price of desi Tur over the week, peaking at Rs 9,975-10,000 per 100 kg. This rise was attributed to increasing demand from local and outstation mills, reinforced by a robust uptake of Tur dal. Similarly, Tur prices in Gulbarga's mandi trade rose by Rs 400, ranging between Rs 9,700-10,000 per 100 kg, contingent on the quality.
Tur dal prices at Akola markets also saw an upward trend, with the new crop Tur increasing by Rs 300 per quintal. A similar trend was seen in Gulbarga, where Tur dal prices ascended by Rs 300-500 per 100 kg. Katni experienced a rise of Rs 500 per 100 kg as well.
The demand spike for Tur dal processed from Burma, Sudan, and Mozambique origin Tur resulted in a price increment of Rs 300 per 100 kg. However, despite the price hike, Tur dal processed from African origin Tur remains considerably more economical than its domestically processed equivalent.
The prices of Tur from Africa, specifically Sudan, Malawi, and Mozambique (Gajiri-white variety), have witnessed an increase of Rs 300-400 per 100Kg. This rise is largely attributable to dwindling stocks of African Tur and a nearly depleted supply from Sudan, which is embroiled in an ongoing civil war.
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According to estimates provided by some traders in Burma, the reported available stock of Tur is approximately 30,000 tonnes. Contrarily, other sources suggest the total Tur stock is closer to 80,000 tonnes. A significant proportion of this stock is held by those traders and stockists who are currently reluctant to sell at the existing price, as they foresee further price escalations due to a deficit in Indian production. However, the current high CNF prices for Chennai have created a substantial import dispairity, thereby discouraging further imports. Meanwhile, the Burmese kyat has maintained its stability against the US dollar, trading at 2,850 Kyat per dollar.
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As per technical chart - Akola Desi Tur dal - Short-term Extended, But Momentum Positive / Next Resistance at Rs. 13,555 and Rs 13,870. Click here
As per technical chart - Akola Desi Tur - Trending higher / Next Resistance at Rs 10,000. Click here.
Trend: Despite governmental efforts, Tur prices are expected to remain strong due to decreased imports caused by import disparities. The higher landed cost of imported Tur compared to domestic spot prices in Chennai and Mumbai has deterred importers, leading to a decline in the supply of imported Tur.
Additionally, the local supply of desi Tur has witnessed a significant decrease. According to the third advance estimate, production has dropped by 18.72% compared to the previous year, from 42.2 lakh tonnes to 34.3 lakh tonnes. This decline in supply is further exacerbated by stockists, traders, and farmers hoarding their stocks in anticipation of future price hikes. Furthermore, retailers and consumers have also begun stockpiling Tur dal as they anticipate further price increases.
However, certain markets have experienced increased domestic Tur arrivals as traders booked profits at higher rates. Nevertheless, there is an expectation among traders that Tur prices will reach a range of 11,000 to 12,000/100Kg, considering that there are still seven months until the new domestic crop arrives. This potential shortage of Tur and price inflation may lead to mills switching from Tur processing to other pulse varieties, resulting in a further shortage of Tur dal and subsequent price inflation.
Due to the strong fundamentals, imposing restrictions to bring down prices becomes difficult. Therefore, the best solution is to allow prices to rise freely, naturally reducing demand at higher levels and encouraging consumers to switch to alternative pulses like masoor, chana, moong, or matar. As a result, this change in demand would ease the pressure and decrease prices.
However, the progress of the monsoon under the impact of El Nino will play a crucial role in determining the major trend in the future.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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