Drought Crisis Intensifies as U.S. Winter Wheat Abandonment Skyrockets

New Delhi, 5 June (Commoditiescontrol):The impact of La Nina, even as El Nino strengthens across the Pacific, is causing havoc to the U.S. 2023 winter wheat crop, with significant drought repercussions.

According to the USDA's May 14-20 weekly weather and crop bulletin, preliminary statistics reveal that the U.S. winter wheat abandonment for 2023 stands at a startling 32.6%. This rate, if realized, would mark the highest since 1917, outstripping even the infamous Dust Bowl drought years of the 1930s.

For months, the prospect of large-scale acreage abandonment has loomed over the agricultural community. Now, with the USDA estimate confirming that nearly one out of three acres of winter wheat seeded last fall will likely be forsaken due to drought, this concern has materialized.

The Southern Plains bear the brunt of this crisis. Texas and Oklahoma are grappling with estimated winter wheat abandonment rates of 70% and 53%, respectively. Meanwhile, in Kansas, the USDA's May crop production report indicates a 19% abandonment rate. However, recent reports from the Kansas Wheat Quality tour suggest the harvested acreage might dip further to around 5.9 million acres, implying an abandonment rate of 27%.

So, what's next for this expected abandoned acreage? Feedback from a social media query on this topic primarily favored the replanting of grain sorghum (milo) in abandoned winter wheat fields. With the late spring shift towards a rainier weather pattern, sorghum could offer ground cover and serve as livestock feed, either as chopped forage or harvested grain. DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman pointed out that the local use of sorghum on abandoned wheat acreage would be significant. However, he also raised concerns about the viability of exports, citing a sharp 76% decline from last year and China's limited demand.

This anticipated abandonment rate underlines the profound impact of the multi-year La Nina Pacific Ocean climate event on U.S. hard red winter wheat. The 2022 production saw a 29% decline from the previous year, dropping to 530.9 million bushels. The latest USDA 2023 production estimate, at 514.3 million bushels, is down another 3% from 2022 and a significant 31% from 2021. With the ongoing effect of La Nina, the supplies of high-quality hard red winter wheat remain severely constricted.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)