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Weekly: ICE Sugar Futures Revived By ISO's Global Deficit Forecast

17 Jun 2024 9:09 am
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Mumbai, 17 Jun (Commoditiescontrol): sugar continued to experience volatile conditions, navigating between rising production prospect in the world's largest producer, on one hand, and the unfavourable climate condition in severla other growing region, forcing the global watcher to change its perspective on future availability. Apparently, the tug-of-war between the bulls and bears continued unabated, with bulls seems have an upper hand at this point.

ICE sugar futures fell on Friday, reversing gains from earlier in the week due to a significant increase in sugar production in Brazil. According to Unica, Brazil's sugar output for the 2024/25 crop year through May surged by 11.8% year-over-year, reaching 7.837 million metric tons (MMT). The proportion of Brazil's sugar cane processed for sugar also rose to 47.88% from 46.68% last year. Consequently, the July raw sugar contract dropped by 0.16 cents, or 0.82%, closing at 19.43 cents per pound, although it gained 2.26% over the week. Similarly, the August ICE white sugar contract in London fell by $5.30, or 0.93%, to settle at $562.10 per metric ton, adding 1.6% for the week.

On Thursday, sugar prices had hit a one-month high, buoyed by the International Sugar Organization’s (ISO) revised global sugar deficit forecast for 2023/24, now estimated at 2.95 million metric tons, up from the previous 689,000 metric tons. The ISO also raised its global sugar demand forecast to 182.2 MMT, driven by increased consumption in India.

Despite some underperformance by mills, Brazil's overall sugar production outlook remains stable, aided by dry weather accelerating the harvest. Meanwhile, India’s sugar production has decreased by 1.6% year-over-year as of April 30, with delayed monsoon rains potentially affecting planting schedules in crucial regions.

In Australia, temporary suspensions of industrial actions at sugar mills were observed as unions negotiated for better wages, impacting operations at the nation's largest sugar producer.

Globally, the sugar market continues to experience volatility influenced by weather conditions in key production areas such as Brazil and India. Analysts from BMI project a 1.5% increase in global sugar production to 185.7 million tons for the 2024/25 season, with consumption expected to rise by 0.5% to 179.7 million tons. The USDA forecasts record sugar production at 186 million metric tons for 2024/25, with demand projected at 178.8 million tons.

Speculative traders have reduced their net short positions, sparking a short-covering rally. Traders are now closely monitoring technical support levels for the October sugar contract at 19.33 and 19.18 cents, with resistance expected at 19.64 and 19.80 cents.

Global sugar markets remain volatile, driven by production increases in Brazil and weather uncertainties. Analysts expect a 1.5% rise in global sugar production for 2024/25, with prices likely to fluctuate due to ongoing market dynamics and weather conditions.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)

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