Mumbai, 28 Oct (Commoditiescontrol): For the week ended Oct 25th, ICE cotton futures weakened as the ongoing U.S. harvest and lower grain prices applied fresh pressure to the market.
December cotton futures on the ICE slipped by 33 points, or 0.46%, closing at 70.66 cents per pound, while March and May contracts followed with declines to 72.85 and 74.39 cents, respectively. The steady harvest progress and strong U.S. dollar contributed to the softer performance.
The USDA reported that 44% of the U.S. cotton crop had been harvested by October 20, advancing from 34% the prior week, though crop quality improvements were limited due to challenging conditions in some regions.
The Brugler500 index, a key crop health measure, edged up slightly to 295, reflecting the mixed progress. Export data, however, provided a bright spot as weekly bookings for the 2024/25 season hit a seven-week high of 169,687 running bales (RB), with Vietnam, Pakistan, and China leading in purchases. Shipments rose to 98,419 RB, with Pakistan and Bangladesh as top destinations. Additionally, ginning activity remained strong, with 2.294 million bales processed so far—a 33% increase compared to the same period last year.
Globally, India’s cotton production forecast for the 2024/25 season dropped by 7.4% to 30.2 million bales due to excessive rain and lower planting, signaling potential supply impacts that could shape price trends.
Market indicators further influenced cotton’s weekly performance. A stronger U.S. dollar, which rose by 281 points, posed challenges for export competitiveness, while rising crude oil prices, up $1.56 per barrel, are likely to affect cotton production costs. In trading data, the latest Commitment of Traders report showed that speculative funds reduced their net short positions in cotton futures by 6,470 contracts, signaling some optimism as net shorts fell to 6,194 contracts as of October 22.
Looking forward, analysts expect possible volatility tied to the upcoming U.S. election. Key support levels for December cotton stand at 70.30 and 69.93 cents per pound, while resistance is at 71.34 and 72.01 cents.
With harvest momentum, a firm dollar, and improving exports, cotton futures may see more fluctuations as global market signals and the U.S. election loom large.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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