Mumbai, 28 Oct (Commoditiescontrol): In the just concluded week of Oct 25th, raw sugar futures on ICE experienced downward pressure as Brazil's sugar production in its Center-South region surged beyond market expectations. According to Unica, sugar output in the first half of October rose 8% year-over-year to 2.443 million metric tons. The season’s cumulative production is up 1.9%, totaling 35.591 million metric tons. These gains triggered speculative selling and drove prices lower.
March raw sugar futures edged down by 0.06 cents, or 0.27%, to close at 22.14 cents per pound on Friday, remaining steady after a 3.3% decline in the prior week. Meanwhile, December white sugar futures in London fell by $3.40, or 0.60%, ending the week at $566.20 per ton.
Weather forecasts also influenced market sentiment. Wilmar International cautioned about potential sugar shortages in early 2025 due to low inventories and slower cane growth from drought conditions. However, substantial rain is anticipated for Brazil’s Center-South region, which could improve soil moisture levels and promote healthier cane growth. Climatempo, a Brazilian meteorological service, projects heavy rainfall beginning Friday, which could temper temperatures and enhance crop development.
Brazil’s sugar exports jumped 23% in September, impacting the United Nations’ global food price index. According to McDougall Global View, the sugar mix—the proportion of cane allocated to sugar production versus ethanol—was reported at 48.7%, adding to the market’s bearish tone.
Technical analysis indicates that support for raw sugar stands at 21.93 and 21.73 cents per pound, while resistance levels are at 22.33 and 22.53 cents.
With Brazil’s robust production figures and an improved weather outlook, the sugar market may continue facing pressure. However, low inventory levels and anticipated demand could moderate declines, adding complexity to the market’s outlook heading into early 2025.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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