MUMBAI, 09 Nov (Commoditiescontrol): The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, marking a significant shift for both corn and soybean farmers. The USDA reduced its expected corn yields by 0.7 bushels per acre and soybean yields by 1.4 bushels per acre, bringing some relief to farmers. As a result, the carryout for 2024/25 was revised lower, with corn ending stocks now projected at 1.938 billion bushels, while soybean carryout was reduced to 470 million bushels.
The USDA’s updated projections triggered a rally in the markets, pushing January soybean contracts to $10.44 and December corn to $4.34. However, this spike was short-lived, as technical selling quickly followed, resulting in a market selloff. Looking ahead, analysts expect continued volatility, offering traders the opportunity to capitalize on temporary pricing fluctuations.
In its corn outlook, the USDA forecast a decline in production, now expected to reach 15.1 billion bushels, down by 60 million from last month. The yield reduction of 0.7 bushels per acre, now at 183.1 bushels, prompted a reduction in ending stocks to 1.9 billion bushels. Despite this, the USDA left the season-average price for corn unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Globally, the USDA forecast larger corn production but also reduced trade, predicting global ending stocks at 304.1 million tons, down by 2.4 million from the previous month. Notably, global corn exports from Brazil and South Africa were lowered, while exports from Burma and Uganda saw increases. Corn imports were reduced for China, though they were raised for Mexico, Vietnam, Turkey, and Peru.
For soybeans, the USDA adjusted its forecast for lower production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. U.S. soybean production is now estimated at 4.5 billion bushels, down by 121 million bushels due to reduced yields, particularly in Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota. As a result, soybean ending stocks were revised down to 470 million bushels. Lower domestic supplies and reduced export figures led the USDA to lower soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion, while soybean crush was reduced by 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion.
Despite these reductions, the USDA maintained its season-average soybean price forecast at $10.80 per bushel, with the soybean meal price held steady at $320 per short ton. On the global stage, the USDA lowered global soybean production by 3.5 million tons to 425.4 million tons, largely due to reduced output in the U.S. and India. This reduction was offset by increased exports from Brazil and Canada, and global soybean ending stocks were reduced to 131.7 million tons.
The USDA's wheat forecast for the 2024/25 season called for slightly larger supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks, while wheat exports remained unchanged. A decrease in the projected season-average farm price to $5.60 per bushel was made based on recent price trends and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. The global wheat outlook suggested higher production, mainly due to an increase in Kazakhstan’s crop, but also forecast reduced trade and slightly lower ending stocks.
Turning to sugar, USDA revised U.S. sugar production for the 2023-24 season upward, thanks to better-than-expected sugarbeet and sugarcane yields. However, for the 2024-25 season, sugarbeet yield was lowered to 32.7 tons per acre, reducing projected sugarbeet production by 372,000 tons. The Louisiana sugarcane crop was also revised lower, bringing the national sugar production forecast down. U.S. sugar imports were also decreased, while exports were raised. Ending stocks for the 2023-24 season are estimated at 2.162 million short tons, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 16.87%.
This report underscores the ongoing shifts in U.S. crop production and the global agricultural landscape, with markets likely to experience continued fluctuations as traders adjust to new supply and demand dynamics.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)
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