Mumbai, 18 Nov (Commoditiescontrol): Sugar markets saw a mixed performance during the week ended Nov 15th, with ICE March raw sugar futures edging slightly higher by 0.02 cents, or 0.09%, to close at 21.58 cents per pound on Friday. However, prices touched a two-week low during the session, weighed down by falling crude oil prices, which pressured both ethanol and sugar markets. London’s December white sugar futures, in contrast, slipped $1.80, or 0.32%, to $545.20 per metric ton.
Throughout the week, sugar prices faced downward pressure, reaching two-month lows as a strengthening U.S. dollar reduced the appeal of dollar-priced commodities for global buyers. The slide in crude oil, which hit a two-week low, raised concerns about sugar mills, especially in Brazil, favoring sugar production over ethanol due to weaker ethanol margins, potentially increasing global sugar supplies.
Support for sugar prices came from production uncertainties in Brazil. According to Unica, sugar output from the Center-South region fell by 24.3% in late October, producing 1.785 million metric tons. However, cumulative seasonal production remains slightly higher at 37 million metric tons, a 0.3% increase year-over-year. Analysts are closely monitoring Brazil’s sugar-ethanol production split for the upcoming 2025/26 season, given current market dynamics.
On the global front, Thailand is projected to boost its sugar production by 18% in the 2024/25 season, reaching 10.35 million metric tons. This follows 8.77 million metric tons produced in 2023/24, potentially adding to global supply pressures. India is also on track for a strong sugar crop, supported by its best monsoon rainfall in four years, which could affect export volumes. Meanwhile, policy adjustments around ethanol in India could further influence domestic sugar availability.
Market positioning added to the week's volatility, with the Commitment of Traders report revealing a record net-long position in London sugar. This leaves the market vulnerable to sharp sell-offs, potentially exacerbating price swings.
Looking ahead, analysts predict ICE raw sugar futures will find support at 21.36 and 21.14 cents per pound, with resistance levels near 21.86 and 22.14 cents. Key market drivers include Brazil’s production decisions, the trajectory of crude oil prices, and the impact of expanded output in Thailand and India on global supply.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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