Higher Yields Drive Record Lentil Production in Canada, Strong Export Demand Provides Stability AAFC

Mumbai, 21 Nov (Commoditiescontrol): Canada’s lentil market is poised for significant growth in the 2024-25 crop year, with production forecast to climb 44% to 2.6 million tonnes (Mt). The Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) report attributes the surge to improved yields in Western Canada and increased planting, particularly for red and large green lentils. Total supply is expected to rise 35% year-over-year despite lower carry-in stocks.

Strong Export Demand Sustains Market Momentum

Exports are projected to grow to 2.1 Mt, driven by strong demand from India, Turkey, and the UAE. This robust demand is helping stabilize prices amid the production increase. However, the average price is forecast to decline by 15% to CAD 850 per tonne due to the larger supply. October saw strong export activity lift on-farm prices, with large green lentils gaining CAD 165 per tonne and red lentils increasing by CAD 65 per tonne in Saskatchewan.

Quality Gains Strengthen Market Outlook

The AAFC report highlights an above-average grade distribution for Canadian lentils this year, further bolstering market confidence. Large green lentils continue to command a premium over red lentils, currently CAD 510 per tonne, although narrower than the CAD 785 per tonne premium in 2023-24.

Competitive Global Landscape

The report also notes a 66% increase in U.S. lentil production to 0.43 Mt, fueled by a 71% expansion in seeded area, particularly in Montana. U.S. lentils remain strong competitors in key export markets such as the EU, Canada, and Mexico.

Balancing Growing Supply with Demand

While higher yields and favorable growing conditions have strengthened Canada’s position in the global lentil market, the sharp rise in carry-out stocks, forecast at 0.48 Mt, highlights the need for sustained export momentum. Key factors to watch include Indian purchasing patterns, U.S. competition, and evolving global price trends.

The AAFC report underscores that Canada’s expanded production, combined with solid export demand, positions the lentil sector for growth. However, continued focus on managing inventories and maintaining market balance will be essential to capitalizing on this favorable outlook.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)