MUMBAI, 10 Jan (Commoditiescontrol): The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest report for the 2024/25 cotton market, presenting a mixed picture of production, consumption, and trade. While U.S. cotton production and ending stocks are set to rise, exports face a reduction, reflecting challenges in global trade dynamics.
U.S. Cotton Outlook
For the U.S., the all-cotton production estimate has been raised by 159,000 bales, bringing the total to 14.4 million bales. This adjustment comes as the national all-cotton yield increased by 44 pounds to 836 pounds per harvested acre. The revision reflects a larger crop but a decline in harvested area, particularly in the Southwest. In contrast, states in the Southeast, Delta, and parts of the Southwest are projected to see higher yields.
Exports, however, are projected to decline by 300,000 bales, dropping to 11.0 million bales, which has pushed up ending stocks to 4.8 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio now stands at 38%, indicating a surplus in supply. Additionally, the season's average upland farm price has been reduced to 65 cents per pound, signaling potential challenges for U.S. cotton growers.
Global Cotton Dynamics
On the global front, the USDA’s report highlights increases in production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks, with beginning stocks remaining unchanged. Global cotton production for 2024/25 has been revised upward by over 2 million bales to reach 119.4 million bales. The largest contributor to this growth is China, with its production forecast rising by 1.8 million bales. Australia and the United States are also expected to see larger crops, while production in Pakistan has been revised downward.
Global consumption has seen a modest increase of 100,000 bales, driven by rising demand in Bangladesh and Vietnam, which offsets a decline in Turkey. On the trade front, global exports are projected to rise by 225,000 bales, supported by increases in Brazil, Australia, and India. However, U.S. export reductions weigh on the overall market sentiment.
Ending stocks globally are projected to rise by nearly 1.9 million bales. Significant increases are expected in China, the United States, Australia, and India, while Brazil will see a reduction.
Market Outlook
The USDA’s projections reflect a complex global cotton market. While higher production and ending stocks signal ample supply, reduced U.S. exports and declining prices indicate ongoing challenges. As global trade adjusts to shifts in supply and demand, cotton producers and traders will closely monitor evolving market conditions.
The report underscores the need for cautious optimism as the industry navigates a season marked by fluctuating yields, shifting trade patterns, and price pressures.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)