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Review: Soybean complex finishes lower as rainfall forecasts ease crop concerns in South America

15 Jan 2022 9:55 am
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Mumbai, January 15 (Commoditiescontrol) Soybean, meal and oil prices dropped on the Chicago Board of Trade as compared to last week as forecasts for rains are likely to aid crops in dry areas of South America.

The most active contract of soybean settled nearly 2.9% down compared to last week on the CBOT while soyoil futures finished the week with only 0.5% down. CBOT soymeal futures ended 4.5% lower on a weekly basis.

On Friday, CBOT most-active March soybeans ended at $13.69-3/4 per bushel, down 7-1/2 cents from the last session after touching its lowest price since Jan. 4.

CBOT March soyoil ended up 0.02 cent at 58.46 cents per pound, while March soymeal dropped $3.30 to settle at $405.60 per short ton as compared to the previous session.

Traders liquidated some long positions ahead of a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. The CBOT will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr Day.

Beneficial rains are expected to hit Argentina this weekend, traders said, after hot, dry conditions have stressed crops.

The Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday reduced its forecast for Argentina's soybean production to 40 million tonnes from 45 million tonnes.

Exporters struck deals to sell 100,000 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to Spain, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

China, the world's top soybean buyer, reduced soybean imports in 2021 from the previous year, the first annual drop since 2018, Chinese customs data showed.


Chinese customs data showed 8.866 MMT of soybeans were brought in during December.


Commitment of Traders data showed soybean spec traders extended their net long during the week that ended 1/11. The 7,960 contract stronger spec position was fueled by net new buying into the USDA reports and left managed money 106,879 contracts net long. Commercial bean traders added 17,710 shorts and lifted 1.8k long hedges during the week that ended 1/11. That left the PMPUs 252,226 contracts net short soybeans going into the reports.


As for the products, CFTC showed soymeal spec traders were 2,152 contracts more net long through the week to 72,920 contracts. Managed money was 55,907 contracts net long in bean oil as of the 1/11 settle. That was a 2,719 contract stronger net position from the week prior.

Ahead of the NOPA crush data, analysts are on average expecting 185 mbu of soybeans were processed in December. The full range of estimates is to see between 181.7 to 188.7 mbu. The average estimate for BO stocks is 1.892 billion lbs.

The International Grains Council revised their soybean production forecast to 368 MMT in their January figure. That was 12 MMT above their prior November forecast. Stocks are forecasted at 52 MMT, which was 8 MTM tighter.


In its latest January report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled down its forecast for global soybean production in 2021-22 to 372.56 million tonnes, compared to 381.78 million tonnes projected in December 2021.


(By Commodities control Bureau; +91 9820130172)


       
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