New Delhi, 12 April (Commoditiescontrol) The private weather forecaster, Skymet weather on Tuesday released its monsoon forecast for 2022, expecting the upcoming monsoon to be ‘normal’ to the tune of 98% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long period average of 880.6mm for the 4- month long period from June to September.
In its earlier preliminary forecast released on February 21, 2022, Skymet assessed the monsoon 2022 to be ‘normal’ and now retains the same, spread of normal rainfall being 96-104% of LPA, a report on the website of the forecaster said.
According to Yogesh Patil, CEO, Skymet, “The last 2 monsoon seasons have been driven by back-to-back La Nina events. Earlier, La Nina had started shrinking sharply in winters, but its fallback has been stalled on account of the strengthening of trade winds. Though passed its peak, La Nina cooling of the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail till, short of the onset of southwest monsoon. Therefore, the occurrence of El Nino, which normally corrupts the monsoon is ruled out. However, pulsating behavior of the monsoon is expected to transpire abrupt and intense rains, interspersed by abnormally long dry spells”.
Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, albeit having a propensity of -ve inclination closer to the threshold margins. Monsoon will have to ride over ENSO - neutral conditions, while battling resistance from IOD, especially during 2nd half of the season. This possibly can lead to extreme variability in the monthly rainfall distribution.
In terms of geographical risks, Skymet expects Rajasthan and Gujarat along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura of the northeast region to be at risk of being rain deficit throughout the season. Also, the state of Kerala and North Interior Karnataka will witness scanty rains in the core monsoon months of July and August. Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, the agriculture bowl of North India, and rainfed areas of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will witness above normal rainfall. The 1st half of the season is expected to fare better than the latter. Monsoon is likely to make a decent start during the onset month of June.
According to Skymet, Monsoon probabilities for JJAS are:
• 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 65% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 25% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 0% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA)
On a monthly scale, the precipitation foreshadow is as follows:
June - 107% of LPA (LPA for June = 166.9 mm)
• 70% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 10% chance of below normal
July - 100% of LPA (LPA for July = 285.3 mm)
• 65% chance of normal
• 20% chance of above normal
• 15% chance of below normal
August - 95% of LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)
• 60% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 30% chance of below normal
September - 90% of LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
• 20% chance of normal
• 10% chance of above normal
• 70% chance of below normal
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