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India To Receive 2019 Monsoon Rains At 96% Of Long-Term Average: IMD

15 Apr 2019 3:21 pm
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NEW DELHI (Commoditiescontrol) - Monsoon is likely to be "near normal" this year, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.

IMD's first long-range forecast for the south-west monsoon on Monday said that El-Nino conditions will weaken in coming months. "El Nino is weakening and we expect that El Nino will get weakened further. There is no reason to be worried about El Nino," IMD said.

Monsoon is likely to be 96 percent of the long period average (LPA), government-run weather forecasting agency said.

The forecast has a margin of error of 5 percent, according to the weather office. LPA is the average of rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm.

The monsoon is considered ‘normal’ when the June-September period has rainfall in the range of 96-104 percent of the LPA. Anything between 90-95 percent of LPA falls under the "below normal" category. 

"Overall, the country is expected to have well distributed rainfall scenario during the 2019 monsoon season, which will be beneficial to farmers in the country during the ensuing Kharif (summer-planting) season," the IMD said in its forecast.

The south-west monsoon, which makes its onset over India around May-end, is critical for its over 100-million farmer families. The four-month rainy season contributes more than 70% of India’s annual showers.

Based on presence of El Nino, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather had on April 3 predicted ‘below normal’ monsoon for 2019. It pegged countrywide rainfall during the monsoon period (June-September) at 93% of the long period average.

According to the latest global forecasts, weak El Nino conditions have developed over equatorial Pacific Ocean and they are likely to persist this summer. However, IMD officials have maintained that these conditions would weaken after summer.

After facing droughts in 2014 and 2015, primarily because of the effects of El Nino, the monsoon rains improved in 2016 with India receiving normal rainfall in the four months between June and September.

(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau) 

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