Mumbai, June 25 (CommoditiesControl):SovEcon has released its latest estimates for Ukrainian grain exports for the upcoming 2024/25 season, projecting a significant decline in both wheat and corn exports. According to the report, Ukrainian wheat exports are anticipated to reach 13.6 million metric tons (MMT), marking a 25% decrease from last year's figures. Corn exports are forecasted at 22.0 MMT, which is 23% lower than the previous year.
The decrease in Ukrainian grain exports is attributed to a substantial reduction in supply. Wheat production for the new season is estimated at 20.4 MMT, down from 21.6 MMT last year. Similarly, corn production is expected to fall to 27.6 MMT from 31.0 MMT. This decline is primarily due to reduced planting areas for corn and lower yields for both corn and wheat.
Carryover stocks are also projected to see a sharp reduction. For the 2023/24 season, wheat carryover stocks are expected to drop to 0.9 MMT from 4.0 MMT a year earlier, while corn carryover stocks are anticipated to decrease to 1.5 MMT from 4.2 MMT. The high export pace in the current season has significantly depleted these reserves. SovEcon estimates Ukrainian wheat exports in 2023/24 at 18.2 MMT and corn exports at 28.4 MMT.
Among the largest importers of Ukrainian grain over the past 11 months are Spain, Egypt, and China. Spain received 5.6 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of corn, Egypt imported 1.6 MMT of wheat and 3.5 MMT of corn, and China imported 4.6 MMT of corn.
The anticipated lower export potential from Ukraine, combined with expected smaller supplies from Russia, could lend support to the global grain market, potentially impacting global prices and availability.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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