NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Commoditiescontrol) - In its latest January 2024 report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has scaled up its forecast for global ending stocks in 2023-24 to 84.38 million bales (1 US bale= 218kg), compared to 82.40 million bales projected in December 2023.
World 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast 2.0 million bales higher this month driven by higher beginning stocks and production together with lower consumption.
Lower 2022/23 consumption in Uzbekistan accounts for most of this month’s 400,000-bale increase in 2023/24 beginning stocks. World consumption in 2023/24 is forecast 1.3 million bales lower than last month due to reductions for India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkey.
World production is 260,000 bales higher with China’s crop up 500,000 bales and Argentina’s production higher as well, but lower U.S. production. World trade is little-changed as a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports is more than offset by reductions in Indonesia, Pakistan, and several smaller countries.
This month’s U.S. 2023/24 cotton forecasts include lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Production is 342,000 bales lower, at 12.4 million bales, largely due to reductions in Texas.
Exports are 100,000 bales lower, and ending stocks are 200,000 bales lower at 2.9 million. The season-average upland price received by farmers is projected 1 cent lower this month at 76 cents per pound.
USDA- 2023-24 (Jan 2024) vs 2022-23 (In Million 480-Pound Bales)
WORLD
Opening Stock- 83.22/76.37
Production-113.18/116.56
Import- 43.05/37.69
Consumption-112.43/111.16
Export- 43.05/36.96
Ending Stock- 84.38/83.22
INDIA
Opening Stock-11.82/8.40
Production-25/26.30
Import-1.30/1.73
Consumption-23.70/23.50
Export-1.60/1.10
Ending Stock-12.82/11.82
US
Opening Stock-4.25/4.05
Production-12.43/14.47
Import 0.01/
Consumption-1.90/2.05
Export-12.10/12.77
Ending Stock-2.90/4.25
CHINA
Opening Stock-37.40/38.06
Production-27.50/30.70
Import-11.50/6.23
Consumption-36.50/37.50
Ending Stock-39.81/37.40
BRAZIL
Opening Stock-5.76/3.88
Production-14.56/11.72
Consumption-3.30/3.20
Export- 11.50/6.66
Ending Stock-5.54/5.76
PAKISTAN
Opening Stock-1.53/1.93
Production-6.70/3.90
Import- 3.80/4.50
Consumption-9.80/8.70
Export-0.08/0.10
Ending Stock-2.15/1.53
BANGLADESH
Opening Stock-1.73/2.28
Production-0.16/0.15
Import-7.50/7
Consumption-7.80/7.70
Ending Stock-1.59/1.73
VIETNAM
Opening Stock-1.05/1.02
Import-6.70/6.47
Consumption-6.70/6.45
Ending Stock-1.05/1.05
AUSTRALIA
Opening Stock-4.77/4.96
Production-5.10/5.80
Export-5.75/6.17
Ending Stock- 4.31/4.77
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau)
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