MUMBAI, 1 Jul (Commoditiescontrol): SovEcon experts have revised their forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year, reducing the estimate to 46.1 million tonnes from the previous 47.8 million tonnes. This adjustment follows a lowered wheat harvest projection of 80.7 million tonnes, down from the 85.7 million tonnes forecasted in May, as reported by Finmarket.
The outlook for barley and corn exports has also been significantly reduced. Barley exports for the upcoming season are now expected to reach 3.1 million tonnes, a sharp decrease from the 7 million tonnes forecasted for the current season. Corn exports are projected at 3.6 million tonnes, down from 6.9 million tonnes.
"The significant decline in barley and corn export forecasts reflects the expected drop in production, which, unlike wheat, cannot be offset by significant stocks," SovEcon analysts explained.
The new barley harvest is estimated at 18.6 million tonnes, compared to last year's 21.2 million tonnes, while the corn harvest is projected at 14.6 million tonnes, down from 16.6 million tonnes in the previous year. The total grain harvest is estimated to be 127.4 million tonnes, a decrease from 144.9 million tonnes in 2023.
The reduced forecasts highlight the impact of lower production levels on Russia's grain export capacity, with wheat being the only crop able to somewhat mitigate the decline through existing stockpiles.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)
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