MUMBAI, 14 Jun (Commoditiescontrol): Ukraine's agriculture ministry has revised its forecast for the 2024 grain harvest, increasing it to 56 million metric tons from the previous estimate of 52.4 million tons, according to acting minister Taras Vysotskiy on Friday. The updated projection includes 21 million tons of wheat, 28.5 million tons of corn, and 5 million tons of barley.
For the 2024/25 marketing year (July-June), Ukraine's grain exports are expected to reach 43 million tons, consisting of 15 million tons of wheat and 25 million tons of corn. Vysotskiy noted that Ukraine would conclude the current 2023/24 marketing year with average ending stocks of agricultural products, similar to levels before 2022.
"In the next marketing year, agricultural exports will exceed 60 million tons (including grains, oils, and oilseeds). This demonstrates Ukraine's role as a guarantor of global food security," Vysotskiy stated. The ministry also forecasts the oilseed harvest at 22 million tons, with 13 million tons of sunflower seeds, 4 million tons of rapeseed, and a record 5 million tons of soybeans. Exports of oilseeds and oilseed products are projected to total 17 million tons.
The ministry's new forecast surpasses estimates from analysts and traders. APK-Inform consultancy had earlier estimated the harvest at 52.8 million tons with exports at 36.2 million tons. The Ukrainian grain traders union UGA forecast the combined harvest of wheat, corn, and barley at 49.2 million tons.
Despite earlier concerns over poor weather conditions in May and early June, which included severe frosts and subsequent droughts that created unfavorable
conditions for crops, the ministry has maintained an optimistic outlook. Earlier this month, Vysotskiy affirmed the ministry's initial harvest forecast of 52.4 million tons, despite the challenging weather.
As of June 14, Ukraine had exported 48.7 million tons of grains, two weeks before the end of the current 2023/24 season. This achievement underscores Ukraine's significant role in the global agricultural market, contributing to global food security amid fluctuating weather conditions and market dynamics.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 3018)
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