Mumbai, 24 June 2024 (Commoditiescontrol): Chicago wheat futures rose on Tuesday, driven by uncertainties surrounding Russia's harvest size and potential grain imports by India. This uplift in wheat prices followed two-month lows.
The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) increased by 0.4% to $5.73-1/2 a bushel by 0053 GMT, rebounding from Monday's low of $5.64, the lowest since April 19. In contrast, CBOT corn dipped by 0.1% to $4.33-1/4 a bushel, after touching its lowest since April 2 on Monday. Soybeans remained almost unchanged at $11.30-1/4 a bushel, maintaining their lowest levels since 2020 from the previous session.
A downward revision of Russia's wheat production forecast by Argus, predicting a three-year low of 79.5 million metric tons, has contributed to market volatility. This estimate is significantly below those from leading Russian consultants Sovecon and IKAR, amidst a backdrop of declining Russian export prices and early harvest data indicating high yields.
In India, government measures to limit wheat stocks held by traders and possible reductions in import taxes could potentially increase the nation's demand for global wheat supplies.
Despite this, the influx of new wheat continues to exert downward pressure on prices, with the U.S. wheat harvest reported to be 40% complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 25%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Large speculators have adjusted their positions, reducing net short positions in CBOT Trade corn futures as of June 18, while increasing short positions in wheat and soybeans, regulatory data revealed.
Global wheat prices may find a short-term bottom as markets are highly oversold. Further uncertainty regarding the Russian crop and Indian imports could trigger short covering by managed money, leading to a recovery in prices.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91-9820130172)
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