MUMBAI, 19 July (Commoditiescontrol): The International Grains Council (IGC) has projected a significant decline in global sunflower seed production for the 2024/25 season, highlighting potential challenges for the global oilseed market. The latest IGC forecast, released on July 18, 2024, indicates that worldwide sunflower production is expected to drop to 51 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 53 million tons.
This revision is largely due to adverse weather conditions in key producing regions such as Ukraine and Russia, where prolonged drought and heatwaves have severely impacted crop yields.
Sunflowerseed: Supply and demand summary
Country-wise, Ukraine and Russia, which are major sunflower seed producers, are expected to see a decline in their output. Ukraine’s production is forecasted to fall by 1.5 million tons, while Russia’s output is projected to decrease by 0.5 million tons. Conversely, Argentina is expected to maintain stable production levels, contributing to the global supply.
Despite the decrease in production, global demand for sunflower oil remains strong, driven by the food and biofuel industries. The IGC anticipates steady consumption increases, which may lead to tighter supplies and potentially higher prices in the coming months. The global stocks of sunflower seeds are also expected to dwindle, reaching their lowest levels in nearly a decade.
Sunflowerseed: Production in select countries
Market analysts are closely monitoring the situation, particularly the impact on export availability from major producers. This decline in sunflower production could also affect related markets, such as soybean and palm oil, as buyers seek alternative vegetable oil sources. As the new season progresses, stakeholders in the agricultural sector are advised to stay informed on the latest updates and market trends to effectively navigate the evolving landscape.
The price trend for sunflower oil has already shown an upward trajectory due to the anticipated shortfall in supply. Prices are expected to remain volatile, with further increases likely as the market adjusts to the lower production levels and high demand.
The IGC's next report, expected in August, will provide further insights into the global oilseed market's outlook and potential strategies for mitigating the anticipated supply challenges.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)
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