MUMBAI, 19 July (Commoditiescontrol): The International Grains Council (IGC) has projected a significant decline in global soybean production for the 2024/25 season, estimating output to fall to 379 million tons from the previous forecast of 385 million tons. This decrease is mainly due to adverse weather conditions in key producing countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.
In the United States, the largest global producer, soybean production is expected to drop to 116 million tons, down from 120 million tons previously forecasted. Prolonged drought and extreme heat have negatively impacted yields in major soybean-growing regions. Similarly, Brazil's production is forecasted to decrease to 131 million tons, compared to the earlier estimate of 134 million tons. Argentina's output is also projected to decline, with an expected 46 million tons, down from 48 million tons.
Soyabeans: Supply and demand summary
Despite the production decline, global demand for soybeans remains strong, driven by the livestock feed and biofuel industries. The IGC report indicates that consumption will surpass production, leading to tighter supply conditions and potentially higher prices. Global soybean stocks are forecasted to fall to their lowest levels in five years, exacerbating concerns about supply shortages.
Country-wise, the production trends show a consistent decline led by the United States, which is expected to produce 116 million tons, down from 120 million tons. Brazil's soybean output seen at 131 million tons, down from 134 million tons. Argentina is Forecast to produce 46 million tons, down from 48 million tons.
Soyabeans: Progress of shipments by selected key exporters (October-June)
The IGC also highlighted the impact of geopolitical tensions and trade policies on the soybean market. Export restrictions and tariffs have added uncertainty, further complicating the outlook for global soybean trade. Market analysts are closely monitoring these developments as they could significantly influence global supply chains and price dynamics.
In conclusion, the IGC's latest forecast underscores the challenges facing the global soybean market. With production declines expected in major producing countries and strong demand continuing, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to navigate the uncertain landscape ahead. The next IGC report, due in August, will provide further insights into the evolving situation and potential strategies for managing supply risks.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau; +91 98201 30172)
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