Mumbai, 22 Jul (Commoditiescontrol): In a challenging week for cotton futures, ICE cotton prices dropped to a one-week low on Friday, driven down by a stronger dollar and weak sentiment across the oil, grains, and financial markets. This decline reflects a broader trend of market volatility and economic uncertainty.
The December cotton contract fell by 123 points, closing at 70.70 cents per pound, its lowest since July 12, and marking a second consecutive weekly decline. March and May contracts also saw declines, dropping by 114 and 107 points to settle at 72.62 and 74.00 cents per pound, respectively.
A 0.1% rise in the dollar index made cotton more expensive for international buyers, exacerbating the downward pressure. Additionally, falling crude oil prices lowered the cost of polyester, a common cotton substitute, further impacting cotton demand.
Weather forecasts predicting rain in the southeastern U.S. and much of Texas next week added to the bearish sentiment. The market also reacted to disappointing export data; cotton export sales for the week ending July 11 hit a marketing year low at 27,240 running bales (RB), despite new crop sales reaching a five-week high at 165,590 RB. Actual export shipments were the lowest since November, totaling 113,106 RB.
Crop progress data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) showed that the U.S. cotton crop development is ahead of average, with 64% squaring and 27% setting bolls. Condition ratings remained stable, with 45% in the good/excellent categories. The Brugler500 index dropped by one point to 319, with Texas down by four points and Georgia up by four points.
The USDA's latest balance sheet update revealed an increase in old crop stocks by 200,000 bales to 3.05 million due to reduced exports. New crop planted acreage rose to 10.67 million acres, and harvested acreage increased to 9.67 million acres, raising production by 1 million bales to a total of 17 million. Projected end-of-year stocks for the 2024/25 crop year increased by 1.2 million bales to 5.3 million.
Globally, the old crop carryout was reduced by 1.66 million bales to 79.31 million, while new crop world production increased by 1.05 million bales, with total stocks falling by 860,000 bales to 82.63 million.
ICE cotton stocks were down 703 bales on July 18 from decertification, leaving 40,419 bales of certified stocks. The Cotlook A Index rose 65 points to 82.35 cents/lb, and the USDA Average World Price (AWP) increased by 34 points to 56.42 cents/lb. The Commitment of Traders report showed spec funds still net short 40,226 contracts of cotton futures and options as of July 16, a net reduction of 223 contracts from the previous week. Analysts are closely monitoring technical support levels at 70.11/69.52 and resistance levels at 71.72/72.74 for December cotton contracts.
In conclusion, the cotton market faces significant challenges, with factors such as the stronger dollar, weather forecasts, and export data contributing to the current downward trend. As global economic conditions evolve, stakeholders will need to stay vigilant and adapt to the shifting landscape.
(By Commoditiescontrol Bureau: 09820130172)
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