MUMBAI – Global weather agencies warn that India may face the return of La Niña conditions as early as June, increasing the likelihood of heavy monsoon rains and potential flooding. This development comes as the current El Niño cycle, which has contributed to deficient rainfall across parts of India, begins to dissipate.
"While El Niño continues near its end, three out of seven international models now predict a La Niña by late winter," stated Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) estimates a 62% chance of La Niña forming between June and August, representing a 7% increase from projections two weeks ago.
"A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected by the April-June 2024 season, with ENSO-neutral persisting through May-July 2024. La Niña conditions are then favored in June-August, with chances increasing into the October-December season," the CPC reports.
The majority of climate models predict El Niño will persist through March-May 2024, transitioning to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024. Many models then indicate a shift to La Niña conditions around June-August 2024.
This potential return of La Niña is particularly concerning for India, as La Niña episodes can bring abnormally heavy rainfall and flooding. The current El Niño, present since June 2023, has already caused deficient rainfall in at least one-quarter of India, affecting several monsoons and the winter season.
Experts note that negative subsurface temperature anomalies have expanded across the equatorial Pacific, a development often associated with the formation of La Niña.
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